Table 1.

Results of statistical tests on site likelihoods generated under constrained tree searches. The first column gives the topological constraint under which the site likelihoods were produced, where C, Chrysomelinae; A, Alticinae; G, Galerucinae and S, incertae sedis with spring present. Columns show the observed log-likelihood difference of trees (OBS), the results from approximately unbiased tests (AU); bootstrap probability of item/hypothesis (NP); non-scaled bootstrap probability (BP) and the Bayesian posterior probability (PP) calculated by the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) approximation, and the (weighted) Shimodaira–Hasegawa test (SH and WSH). See main text for a narrative of the tested hypotheses.

	hypothesis	OBS	AU	NP	BP	PP	SH	WSH
1.0	no constraint	−56.3	0.969	0.866	0.874	1.000	0.996	0.998
1.1	(((G,S),C),A)	56.3	0.119	0.075	0.070	4e−25	0.416	0.267
1.2	((A,C),G,S)	78.1	0.066	0.033	0.029	1e−34	0.250	0.146
1.3	((G,C),A,S)	110.7	0.056	0.015	0.016	8e−49	0.076	0.093
1.4	((G),A,S,C)	129.6	0.016	0.004	0.004	5e−57	0.032	0.042
1.5	((S),A,C,G)	137.0	0.024	0.006	0.006	3e−60	0.033	0.045
1.6	((A,S),G,C)	181.5	0.002	3e−04	0.001	1e−79	0.003	0.004