Table IV.

Results from simulation study with approximately 20 studies

µ	τ2		Naïve random-effects	Fixed-effect	Random-effects	BT	Approx. semi-Bayes	Semi-Bayes
0	0	Studies at stopping	19.7	16.3	22.5	22.5	22.8	24.2
		P(benefit|µ)	0.097	0.028	0.023	0.023	0.021	0.016
		Coverage, all CIs	80.7	93.9	94.7	94.8	95.2	96.3
		Coverage, last CI	80.7	93.9	94.7	94.8	95.2	96.3
		τ2 median	0.035	0	0.038	0.038	0.044	0.073
		τ2 mean	0	0	0	0	0.0008	0.069
		V at stopping	45.3	45.4	45.5	45.5	45.5	45.3
	0.0625	Studies at stopping	20.3	20.3	24.1	24.1	24.4	24.8
		P(benefit|µ)	0.122	0.040	0.036	0.032	0.031	0.025
		Coverage, all CIs	76.1	91.5	93.1	93.2	93.6	95.0
		Coverage, last CI	76.1	91.5	93.1	93.2	93.6	95.0
		τ2 median	0.063	0	0.071	0.071	0.076	0.084
		τ2 mean	0.0017	0	0.023	0.023	0.031	0.076
		V at stopping	45.2	45.4	45.5	45.5	45.5	45.2
	0.25	Studies at stopping	23.7	19.7	30.6	30.6	30.7	27.2
		P(benefit|µ)	0.157	0.079	0.046	0.045	0.044	0.049
		Coverage, all CIs	67.0	83.7	90.5	90.5	90.8	89.8
		Coverage, last CI	67.0	83.7	90.5	90.5	90.8	89.8
		τ2 median	0.17	0	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.14
		τ2 mean	0.14	0	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.11
		V at stopping	44.8	45.2	45.3	45.3	45.3	45.2
0.5	0	Studies at stopping	8.6	13.6	15.2	15.2	15.5	16.3
		P(benefit|µ)	0.952	0.910	0.918	0.918	0.920	0.929
		Coverage, all CIs	79.9	93.4	94.4	94.4	94.7	95.8
		Coverage, last CI	95.8	97.8	97.8	97.8	97.9	98.7
		τ2 median	0.067	0	0.049	0.049	0.058	0.081
		τ2 mean	0	0	0	0	0.016	0.076
		V at stopping	13.6	29.3	29.1	29.1	29.1	28.9
	0.0625	Studies at stopping	9.0	13.6	16.2	16.2	16.4	16.6
		P(benefit|µ)	0.952	0.897	0.913	0.913	0.914	0.919
		Coverage, all CIs	75.8	91.7	93.3	93.4	93.9	95.4
		Coverage, last CI	95.0	97.6	98.1	98.1	98.0	98.6
		τ2 median	0.092	0	0.079	0.079	0.087	0.090
		τ2 mean	0	0	0.015	0.015	0.028	0.081
		V at stopping	13.1	29.2	28.8	28.8	28.8	29.0
	0.25	Studies at stopping	10.1	13.2	19.8	19.9	20.0	17.8
		P(benefit|µ)	0.950	0.878	0.908	0.908	0.907	0.896
		Coverage, all CIs	66.0	84.0	90.8	90.8	90.7	89.6
		Coverage, last CI	91.7	94.8	97.1	97.1	97.1	96.8
		τ2 median	0.20	0	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.11
		τ2 mean	0.10	0	0.17	0.17	0.18	0.14
		V at stopping	11.3	28.0	27.8	27.8	27.9	28.1

BT, Biggerstaff and Tweedie.