Table 3. Parameter combinations for the 10 best-fit simulations for the northeastern U.S. as validated with New York state P&I mortality data.

Rank	RMS Error	Correlation Coefficient(r)	L (years)	D (days)		*
1	0.0070	0.94	5.59	5.69	3.83	2.83
2	0.0071	0.94	5.64	5.43	4.99	2.48
3	0.0071	0.90	9.78	5.59	2.43	3.69
4	0.0072	0.88	9.80	3.59	2.55	3.83
5	0.0072	0.90	2.53	6.04	2.86	2.44
6	0.0073	0.89	9.71	3.68	5.54	1.94
7	0.0074	0.89	3.28	4.31	2.13	3.22
8	0.0075	0.90	8.73	3.74	6.79	3.02
9	0.0077	0.91	6.44	5.72	4.24	2.59
10	0.0077	0.91	6.29	3.17	9.27	1.74

3000 simulations were performed at each site with the parameters L (mean duration of immunity), D (mean infectious period), ϕ (vitamin D scaling), and R ₀ ^* (the basic reproduction number number if γ_i,t = 1) randomly chosen from within specified ranges. Parameters λ (inflection point) and η (inflection point slope) were fixed at and . Best-fit simulations were selected based on RMS error after scaling the 31-year mean daily infection number to the 31-year mean observed daily excess P&I mortality rate.