Table 4.
Functions of parameter estimates for different fractional polynomials
| Fixed effects model, first order fractional polynomial | Fixed effects model, second order fractional polynomial | Random effects model (d0), second order fractional polynomial | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median of posterior distribution | 95% Credible Interval | Median of posterior distribution | 95% Credible Interval | Median of posterior distribution | 95% Credible Interval | |
| Docetaxel * | ||||||
| β0A | -2.422 | (-2.502; -2.348) | -2.689 | (-2.882; -2.476) | -2.694 | (-2.895; -2.513) |
| β1A | -2.174 | (-2.988; -1.401) | -1.224 | (-2.324; -0.198) | -1.193 | (-2.267; -0.206) |
| β2A | 0.013 | (0.004; 0.022) | 0.014 | (0.006; 0.022) | ||
| Gefitinib | ||||||
| β0B (β0A +d0AB) | -2.425 | (-2.515; -2.325) | -2.531 | (-2.776; -2.322) | -2.550 | (-2.777; -2.273) |
| β1B (β1A +d1AB) | -1.540 | (-2.527; -0.631) | -1.227 | (-2.407; 0.082) | -1.124 | (-2.433; 0.010) |
| β2B (β2A +d2AB) | 0.007 | (-0.002; 0.018) | 0.008 | (-0.002; 0.016) | ||
| BSC | ||||||
| β 0C (β0A +d0AC) | -1.652 | (-1.818; -1.461) | -1.015 | (-1.600; -0.480) | -1.041 | (-1.554; -0.462) |
| β1C (β1A +d1AC) | -4.681 | (-6.564; -3.010) | -7.082 | (-9.677; -4.320) | -7.032 | (-9.700; -4.622) |
| β2C (β2A +d2AC) | -0.040 | (-0.071; -0.008) | -0.039 | (-0.069; -0.010) | ||
| Pemetrexed | ||||||
| β0D (β0 A +d0AD) | -2.402 | (-2.616; -2.188) | -2.548 | (-3.101; -1.954) | -2.552 | (-3.093; -1.978) |
| β1D (β1A +d1AD) | -3.169 | (-5.445; -0.673) | -2.583 | (-5.634; 0.308) | -2.561 | (-5.329; 0.167) |
| β2D (β2A +d2AD) | 0.009 | (-0.018; 0.033) | 0.009 | (-0.014; 0.028) | ||
| Expected survival (in months) | ||||||
| docetaxel | 12.5 | (11.9; 13.3) | 13.0 | (12.2; 13.8) | 13.0 | (12.2; 13.9) |
| gefitinib | 12.1 | (11.3; 13.0) | 12.2 | (11.3; 13.2) | 12.2 | (10.6; 14.0) |
| BSC | 7.2 | (6.5; 8.1) | 6.2 | (5.1; 7.6) | 6.2 | (4.8; 7.9) |
| pemetrexed | 12.7 | (10.9; 14.7) | 12.7 | (10.5; 15.0) | 12.9 | (9.5; 17.4) |
| Difference in expected survival (in months) | ||||||
| gefitinib vs docetaxel | -0.4 | (-1.4; 0.6) | -0.8 | (-1.9; 0.3) | -0.8 | (-2.6; 1.1) |
| BSC vs docetaxel | -5.3 | (-6.2; -4.3) | -6.8 | (-8.0; -5.4) | -6.8 | (-8.4; -5.0) |
| pemetrexed vs docetaxel | 0.1 | (-1.8; 2.2) | -0.3 | (-2.5; 2.0) | -0.2 | (-3.6; 4.4) |
| BSC vs gefitinib | -4.9 | (-6.0; -3.8) | -6.0 | (-7.4; -4.5) | -6.0 | (-8.1; -3.9) |
| pemetrexed vs gefitinib | 0.5 | (-1.6; 2.8) | 0.4 | (-2.0; 3.0) | 0.6 | (-3.2; 5.3) |
| pemetrexed vs. BSC | 5.4 | (3.4; 7.6) | 6.4 | (3.9; 9.1) | 6.7 | (3.0; 11.4) |
* (calculated as average from docetaxel study specific estimates: μ0, μ1, μ2)