Table 1.

Parameter values

Parameter name	Symbol	Valuea	Source
Preventive circumcision program parameters
Percentage of uncircumcised uninfected or uncircumcised      asymptomatic HIV + males circumcised annually	κ(t)	0.10–0.20, t ≤ 5 0, t >5	Assumption
Circumcision protective effect (percent reduction in risk of female-      to-male transmission of HIV infection)	ε	0.61 (0–1.0)	[3]
Change in (male-negotiated) condom use following circumcision,      for males circumcised as adults following circumcision program      implementation, or for males previously circumcised in childhoodb	Δ	1.0 (0–2.0)	Assumption
HIV transmission parameters
Male infectivity (per-partner probability of transmission to a female)
Asymptomatic period of HIV infection	βM1,j	0.0684c	[66]
Symptomatic period of HIV infection	βM2,j	0.1657c	[66]
Female infectivity (per-partner probability of transmission to a      male)
Asymptomatic period of HIV infection	βW1	0.1112c	[66]
Symptomatic period of HIV infection	βW2	0.2697c	[66]
Contact rate (number of new partners per year) of males or females
Uninfected	ρ0	3	[36]
HIV infected, asymptomatic period	ρ3	3	[36]
HIV infected, symptomatic period	ρ2	1	Assumption
HIV infected, AIDS	ρ3	0	Assumption
Baseline (male-negotiated) condom use for all partnerships (without      implementation of an adult male circumcision program)	hi,,j	0.5	[28, 36–40]
Condom failure rate for all partnerships	f	0.14	[67]
HIV disease duration parameters
Asymptomatic HIV infection (years)	1/µ1	6.8	[68–70] (with assumptions)
Symptomatic HIV infection (years)	1/µ2	2.6	[68–70] (with assumptions)
AIDS (years)	1/µ3	0.8	[68]
Population parameters, heterosexual men/women >16 years
Mean age (years)		25.1	[71]
Non-AIDS life expectancy (years)		60.8	[72]
Non-AIDS-related annual mortality rate	µ	0.028d	[71, 72]
Initial population size		823,000	[28, 38–40, 73]
Initial HIV prevalence, male population (%)		11.6	[38]
Initial HIV prevalence, female population (%)		20.0	[38]
Initial circumcision rate, baseline male population (%)		0.35	[27]
Arriving male population HIV prevalence (%)		0.03	[28, 38, 40, 74]
Arriving female population HIV prevalence (%)		0.10	[28, 38, 40, 74]
Arriving male population circumcision rate (%)		0.35	[28]

^aValues in parentheses are ranges used in sensitivity analyses

^bE.g., for Δ = 1.0, no change in condom use, for Δ = 1.30, 30% increase in condom use, for Δ = 0.70, 30% decrease in condom use

^cSee Appendix for further details

^dCalculated[26]