Table 3. Model input values from the low transmission scenario described by Shekhalage (2007) and Mwerinde (2005), and the high transmission scenario described by Paganotti (2004 and 2006) [24]–[27].
Value | Tanzania (low transmission) | Burkina Faso (high transmission) |
mean (range)* | mean (range)*** | |
EIR (per year) | 3.4 (0.73–19.55)** | 584 (146–1022) |
Parasite rate (with microscopy) | 0.019 (0.016–0.022) | 0.824 (0.742–0.9064) |
Parasite rate (submicroscopic) | 0.325 (0.299–0.351) | 0.967 (0.948–0.986) |
Gametocyte rate (with microscopy) | 0.004 (0.0028–0.0052) | 0.033 (0.023–0.043) |
Gametocyte rate (submicroscopic) | 0.15 (0.13–0.17) | 0.41 (0.37–0.45) |
Ranges were assigned to all input values. Random samples (n = 1000) were generated from within these ranges and used for model calibration.
*for parasite and gametocyte rates Shekalaghe (2007) differentiates between wet and dry season, we used the mean values;
**Mwerinde et al. report a mean EIR of 3.4/a for the Moshi region. Since this is a very low value, based on a very limited number of observations (sporozoite rate of 3/5634 sampled mosquitoes), we assume a wide (log normally distributed) possible EIR range around this mean;
***Paganotti et. al. investigated two ethnic groups (Mossi and Fulani). We used the data reported for the Fulani group.