Table 4. Parameters used in M1 and M2, which were either calibrated or derived from [25]–[27].
| Value | Low Transmission Scenario | High Transmission Scenario |
| [Unit] | mean (range) | mean (range) |
| X | 0.980 (0.978–0.984) (M1) | 0.18 (0.093–0.25) (M1) |
| 0.67 (0.64–0.70) (M2) | 0.033 (0.014–0.052) (M2) | |
| Y | 0.015 (0.011–0.019) (M1) | 0.79 (0.71–0.87) (M1) |
| 0.17 (0.14–0.21) (M2) | 0.56 (0.50–0.61) (M2) | |
| Z | 0.004 (0.002–0.005) | 0.034 (0.023–0.043) |
| U | 0.14 (0.13–0.17) | 0.38 (0.33–0.42) |
| λ | 0.00091 (0.00052–0.0014) (M1) | 0.28 (0.11–0.74) (M1) |
| 0.012 (0.0092–0.019) (M2) | 0.77 (0.40–1.33) (M2) | |
| r [d−1] | 0.030 (0.018–0.042) | 0.028 (0.016–0.043) |
| ρ [d−1] | 0.030 (0.018–0.042) | 0.028 (0.016–0.043) |
| cZ | 0.15 (0.066–0.412) (M1) | 0.024 (0.004–0.079) (M1) |
| 0.014 (0.006–0.027)(M2) | 0.034 (0.012–0.078) (M2) | |
| cU | 0.54 (0.24–0.87) | 0.36 (0.15–0.73) |
| a * | 0.12 (0.05–0.5) (M1) | 0.19 (0.05–0.5) (M1) |
| 0.40(0.05–0.5) (M2) | 0.36(0.05–0.5) (M2) |
Subpopulations X,Y,Z and U were derived from the parasite rates (PR) and gametocyte rates (GR) shown in Table 3 using equations (14) and (15). Mosquito-to-human force of infection (λ) was calculated using equation (S15) Clearance rates r and ρ are prolonged by superinfection as shown in equations (8). Fractions cZ and cU were used for calibration using equations (S16) and (S17) which can be found in Appendix S1.
*although a result of the calibration process (equation S16), we constrain the probability that an infective bite results in human infection (a) to lie between 0.05 and 0.5, which we assume to be a reasonable range for a highly uncertain parameter such as a.