Table 2.
Diagnostic accuracy of single clinical, imaging and MEP variables for predicting short-term disease activity in the test cohort
| Clinical end-points | Change EDSS | Disability Progression | Relapse free |
|---|---|---|---|
| MS subtype | 64 (8) < 0.01 |
70 (9) < 0.01 |
54 (17) 0.03 |
| Sex | 62 (11) -0.02 |
70 (9) < 0.01 |
67 (21) 0.30 |
| Age | 68 (15) 0.22 |
69 (10) -0.01 |
57 (16) 0.03 |
| Baseline EDSS | 65 (16) 0.18 |
72 (13) 0.16 |
59 (11) 0.07 |
| Baseline MF | 70 (17) 0.28 |
71 (14) 0.16 |
59 (15) 0.09 |
| Baseline MSFC | 63 (10) < 0.01 |
67 (12) -0.02 |
58 (6) -0.02 |
| Baseline TWT | 63 (12) 0.03 |
71 (11) 0.05 |
57 (5) -0.03 |
| Baseline NHPT | 66 (14) 0.16 |
64 (13) -0.06 |
58 (10) 0.03 |
| Treatment (DMD) | 63 (11) -0.02 |
70 (10) 0.00 |
57 (8) -0.02 |
| CMCT ADM | 64 (8) < 0.01 |
70 (10) < 0.01 |
55 (14) -0.02 |
| CMCT FHB | 69 (15) 0.21 |
75 (15) 0.28 |
58 (4) -0.01 |
| MEP score | 59 (10) -0.05 |
67 (13) -0.01 |
56 (8.07) -0.04 |
| Grouped MEP score | 64 (15) 0.10 |
71 (12) 0.10 |
55 (9) -0.05 |
| CMCT Z score | 65 (14) 0.15 |
70 (15) 0.17 |
58 (5) -0.01 |
| Abn TMS | 59 (12) 0.01 |
66 (11) < 0.01 |
57 (7) -0.02 |
| T1 vol | 63 (10) -0.03 |
70 (9) < 0.01 |
56 (12) 0.01 |
| Gad+ vol | 64 (8) < 0.01 |
70 (9) < 0.01 |
58 (5) -0.01 |
| GM vol | 63 (11) -0.02 |
69 (10) -0.01 |
61 (17) 0.14 |
| WM vol* | 64 (13) 0.06 |
69 (11) -0.02 |
61 (18) 0.16 |
Results are expressed as the Accuracy (%), standard deviation (SD) and Kappa value (in decimals) of the test cohort using the Simple Logistic algorithm. CMCT ADM and CMCT FHB refer to the average CMCT of left and right arm or leg, respectively.
EDSS: Expanded disability status scale; MF: Motor score of the EDSS; MSFC: MS functional composite; TWT: Fastest time in seconds to walk 25 feet; NHPT: Nine hole peg test; DMD: Disease modifying drugs; CMCT: Central motor conduction time; CMCT ADM: Worst CMCT of both arms (ADM: Adductor digiti minimi) at baseline; CMCT FHB: Worst CMCT of both legs (FHB: Flexor hallucis brevis) at baseline; MEP score: Combined MEP score for the four limbs; Grouped MEP score: MEP score grouped in 3 classes (1 for 1-3, 2 for 4-6, and 3 for 7-9); CMCT Z score: Worst CMCT Z score of the four limbs at baseline; Abn TMS: Abnormal MEP (presence or absence of at least one abnormal MEP in each patient); T1 vol: Lesion volume in T1 at baseline; Gad+ vol: Gadolinium-enhancing lesion volume at baseline; GM vol: Grey matter volume at baseline; WM vol: White matter volume at baseline (* excluding lesions).