Table 3.
Study | Warming (°C) | Impact (%GDP) |
---|---|---|
Nordhaus (1994) [66] | 3.0 | −1.3 |
Nordhaus (1994) [67] | 3.0 | –4.8 (–30 to 0) |
Fankhauser (1995) [68] | 2.5 | −1.4 |
Tol (1995) [69] | 2.5 | −1.9 |
Nordhaus and Yanga (1996) [70] | 2.5 | −1.7 |
Plamberk and Hopea (1996) [71] | 2.5 | −2.5 (–0.5 to −11.4) |
Mendelsohn et al.a,b,c (2000) [72] | 2.5 | 0.0b |
0.1b | ||
Nordhaus and Boyer (2000) [73] | 2.5 | −1.5 |
Tol (2002a) [74] | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Maddison (2003) a,d,e[75] | 2.5 | −0.1 |
Rehdanz and Maddisona,c (2005) [76] | 1.0 | −0.4 |
Hope (2006) a,f [77] | 2.5 | 0.9 (–0.2 to 2.7) |
Nordhaus (2006) [78] | 2.5 | −0.9 (0.1) |
Stern (2006) [63] | −5 to as much as −20% | |
Garnaut (2008) [64] | 5.1 | |
Krugman (2010) [65] | (5.0) g | (–5) g |
Sources: Tol [54] summary for first 13 studies. Fragmentary data for last three based on this author’s reading of these studies. Notes on Table:
The global results were aggregated by Tol [54].
The top estimate is for the “experimental” model, the bottom estimate for the “cross-sectional” model.
Mendelsohn et al. only include market impacts.
The national results were aggregated to regions by the current author for reasons of comparability.
Maddison only considers market impacts on households.
The numbers used by Hope are averages of previous estimates by Fankhauser and Tol; Stern et al. (2006) [63] adopted the work of Hope.
Krugman does not explicitly endorse these figures but rather speaks highly of them on pdf page 8.