Appendix Figure 2.

Sensitivity analysis of how preferred treatment strategy varies with different parameter assumptions.

The 3 separate graphs correspond to distinct assumptions about toxicity related to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART): high toxicity, as in our upper-bound base-case analysis (top); moderate toxicity (middle); and low toxicity (bottom). Within each graph, other model parameters are varied across plausible ranges. We analyzed only scenarios in which base-case results favored earlier treatment (age 30 years, all viral loads; age 40 years, viral loads of 100 000 and 300 000 copies/mL) because results favoring later treatment were unlikely to be robust. These analyses suggest that findings in favor of earlier treatment were generally stable, varying little with parameter assumptions. Values in parentheses are reference citations. *Reference refers to base-case estimate.