Figure 7. Effect of phenotypic variance on evolutionary trajectories and population persistence.
Total change in mean migration timing by 2100 relative to the historic median (A) and probability of quasi-extinction by 2100 (B) as functions of the phenotypic standard deviation in migration timing. Currently, the phenotypic standard deviation in migration timing for Early Stuart sockeye salmon is approximately 7 days. Data points show means of 100 replicates; curves are best linear or quadratic fits to data. Black curves: heritability (h2) of migration timing = 0; red curves: heritability = 0.25; green curves: heritability = 0.5; blue curves: heritability = 0.75.