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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Sep 27.
Published in final edited form as: Arch Intern Med. 2010 Sep 27;170(17):1557–1565. doi: 10.1001/archinternmed.2010.312

Table 4.

Relative Contribution of Plasma Inflammation and Endothelial Dysfunction Markers for Model Fit and Discrimination

Model −2 LnLa LR χ2 Statistic Variable LR χ2 Statistic BICa AUC IDIb
Clinical risk factorsc+fasting glucose level (reference model) 823.82 1845.47 897.96 0.93
 +WBC count 817.84 1851.45 5.98d 900.22 0.93 0.001
 +TNF-R2 level 823.60 1845.69 0.22 905.98 0.93 <−0.001
 +IL-6 level 815.13 1854.17 8.69d 897.51 0.93 0.002
 +hsCRP level 814.33 1854.96 9.49d 896.71 0.93 0.005
 +WBC count and TNF-R2, IL-6, and hsCRP levels 807.50 1861.79 16.32d 914.60 0.93 0.005
 +E-selectin level 820.76 1848.53 3.05 903.14 0.93 0.002
 +ICAM-1 level 810.73 1858.56 13.08d 893.11 0.93 0.007
 +VCAM-1 level 820.03 1849.26 3.79 902.41 0.93 0.001
 +E-selectin, ICAM-1, and VCAM-1 levels 809.42 1859.88 14.40d 908.27 0.93 0.007
Excluding Women With Baseline Fasting Glucose Level ≥126 mg/dL
Clinical risk factorsc+fasting glucose level (reference model) 719.81 733.13 793.95 0.87
 +WBC count 715.74 737.20 4.07d 798.12 0.87 −0.002
 +TNF-R2 level 718.93 734.01 0.88 801.31 0.87 −0.000
 +IL-6 level 712.04 740.91 7.78d 794.42 0.88 0.004
 +hsCRP level 712.36 740.58 7.45d 794.74 0.88 0.009
 +WBC count and TNF-R2, IL-6, and hsCRP levels 705.88 747.06 13.93d 812.97 0.88 0.009
 +E-selectin level 717.04 735.91 2.78 799.42 0.87 0.003
 +ICAM-1 level 707.30 745.65 12.52d 789.68 0.87 0.015
 +VCAM-1 level 717.78 735.16 2.03 800.16 0.87 0.002
 +E-selectin, ICAM-1, and VCAM-1 levels 706.84 746.10 12.97d 805.69 0.87 0.015

Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BIC, Bayesian information criteria; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; LnL, log likelihood; LR, likelihood ratio; WBC, white blood cell. Other abbreviations: See Table 1.

SI conversion factor: To convert glucose to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0555.

a

The smaller the model −2 LnL and BIC, the better the model fit (considering the number of covariates in the BIC).

b

None of the IDI was statistically significantly greater than 0 (P>.05, 1-sided test). The 1-sided test was used because the key question of interest was whether the novel plasma markers improved model prediction.

c

Clinical risk factors included the matching factors (age and race/ethnicity) and waist circumference, history of hypertension, history of high cholesterol levels requiring medication, physical activity, smoking (never, current, or past), current alcohol drinking (0 indicates <1 drink/mo; 1, <1 drink/wk; 2, 1–6 drinks/wk; and 3, ≥7 drinks/wk), and family history of diabetes (yes or no).

d

P<.05 in deviance test (likelihood ratio test) compared with the reference model.