Table 3.
Selected results of sensitivity analysis
| Parameters/Assumptions varied | Outcome measures | Rotavirus | HPV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Part (a): One-way sensitivity analysis (Results for a single country, using India as a representative example) | |||
| Vaccination cost per individual | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| I$5 | 16 | saving | |
| I$25 (base-case) | 212 | 293 | |
| I$50 | 457 | 710 | |
| Incidence of rotavirus deaths | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 80% of base-case | 273 | NA | |
| 100% (base-case) | 212 | NA | |
| 120% of base-case | 171 | NA | |
| Incidence of cervical cancer | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 80% of base-case | NA | 429 | |
| 100% (base-case) | NA | 293 | |
| 120% of base-case | NA | 203 | |
| Ratio of hospitalization to deaths associated with rotavirus | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 80% of base-case | 215 | NA | |
| 100% (base-case) | 212 | NA | |
| 120% of base-case | 209 | NA | |
| Proportion of deaths among incident cervical cancer cases | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 50% | NA | 460 | |
| 80% (base-case) | NA | 293 | |
| 90% | NA | 261 | |
| Vaccine efficacy | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 80% of base-case | 273 | 397 | |
| base-case | 212 | 293 | |
| 120% of base-case | 171 | NA | |
| Discount rate | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 0% | 92 | saving | |
| 3% (base-case) | 212 | 293 | |
| 6% | 377 | 1,609 | |
| Treatment costs | ICER (I$/DALY averted) | ||
| 75% of base-case | 220 | 324 | |
| 100% (base-case) | 212 | 293 | |
| 125% of base-case | 204 | 262 | |
| Part (b): One-way/Two-way sensitivity analysis (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries) | |||
| Discount rate | Years of life saved | ||
| r = 0% | 15,740,674 | 6,030,585 | |
| r = 3% (base-case) | 7,121,323 | 1,266,029 | |
| r = 6% | 4,025,413 | 323,398 | |
| Discount rate | Total incremental costs, I$ | ||
| r = 0% | 1,137,130,971 | 66,938,177 | |
| r = 3% (base-case) | 1,106,950,990 | 422,123,822 | |
| r = 6% | 1,078,274,716 | 494,334,220 | |
| [Discount rate, type of age weight] | DALYs averted | ||
| [r = 0%, K = 0] | 15,767,404 | 6,191,573 | |
| [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case) | 7,146,859 | 1,304,426 | |
| [r = 0%, K = 1] | 18,920,531 | 4,847,082 | |
| [r = 3%, K = 1] | 8,121,119 | 1,148,295 | |
| [Discount rate, type of age weight] | No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below (at the cost of I$25 per vaccinated individual): [cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective] | ||
| [r = 0%, K = 0] | [0,71,1,0] | [23,49,0,0] | |
| [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case) | [0,68,4,0] | [0,66,6,0] | |
| [r = 0%, K = 1] | [0,71,1,0] | [23,49,0,0] | |
| [r = 3%, K = 1] | [0,68,4,0] | [0,66,5,1] | |
| Part (c): Scenario analysis (or multi-way sensitivity analysis) (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries) | |||
| Scenarios (defined by different combinations of different values of the following parameters, with other parameter values set at the base-case values): - Vaccination costs, I$10, I$25, I$50 - Vaccine efficacy, 80%-/+20% - Disease-specific mortality rates |
No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below [cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective] |
||
| Scenario 1 (worst case) - Vaccination costs: I$50 - Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case - Mortality rates: 80% of base-case |
[0,62,6,4] | [0,40,25,7] | |
| Scenario 2 - Vaccination costs: I$25 - Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case - Mortality rates: 80% of base-case |
[0,67,4,1] | [0,60,10,2] | |
| Scenario 3 (base-case) - Vaccination costs: I$25 - Vaccine efficacy: base-case - Mortality rates: base-case |
[0,68,4,0] | [0,66,6,0] | |
| Scenario 4 - Vaccination costs: I$25 - Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case - Mortality rates: 120% of base-case |
[0,69,3,0] | [1,69,2,0] | |
| Scenario 5 (best case) - Vaccination costs: I$10 - Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case - Mortality rates: 120% of base-case |
[5,67,0,0] | [22,50,0,0] | |
r = discount rate, K = 0: uniform age weight, K = 1: non-uniform age weight. DALY = disability-adjusted life year.