Table 4.
c-statistics (area under ROC curve) as measure of discrimination between survivors and nonsurvivors (in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality)
| Score/measure |
Outcome c-statistic (95% CI) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| In-hospital mortality | 30-day mortality | 1-year mortality | |
| Mortality | 83/469 (17.7%) | 117/469 (24.9%) | 178/469 (40.0%) |
| Charlson score | 0.52 (0.46–0.59) | 0.52 (0.46–0.57) | 0.58 (0.53–0.63) |
| Charlson score, age and gender | 0.64 (0.57–0.71) | 0.65 (0.59–0.71) | 0.65 (0.60–0.70) |
| Charlson score, age and gender, surgical/medical status | 0.67 (0.60–0.7) | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) | 0.66 (0.61–0.71) |
| Charlson score, age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors | 0.68 (0.62–0.75) | 0.70 (0.64–0.75) | 0.68 (0.63–0.73) |
| Charlson score, age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy | 0.72 (0.65–0.78) | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | 0.71 (0.67–0.76) |
| Charlson score, age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy, primary diagnosis | 0.75 (0.69–0.81) | 0.75 (0.70–0.80) | 0.72 (0.68–0.77) |
| Ten separate comorbidity groups* | 0.59 (0.52–0.65) | 0.58 (0.52–0.64) | 0.63 (0.58–0.68) |
| Ten comorbidity groups,* with age, gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy, primary diagnosis | 0.75 (0.69–0.82) | 0.76 (0.71–0.81) | 0.75 (0.70–0.79) |
| SAPS II | 0.74 (0.69–0.80) | 0.72 (0.67–0.75) | 0.70 (0.66–0.75) |
| SAPS III | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) | 0.68 (0.63–0.74) | 0.69 (0.64–0.73) |
| APACHE II | 0.73 (0.67–0.78) | 0.71 (0.66–0.76) | 0.71 (0.66–0.76) |
Note:
*
See text for details.
Abbreviations: APACHE, acute physiology and chronic health evaluations; CI, confidence interval; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; SAPS, simplified acute physiology score.