TABLE 3.
MODEL PREDICTION C STATISTIC (AKIN TO AREA UNDER THE RECEIVER–OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC CURVE) AND INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES FOR DAYS 1–28 MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT COHORT*
| Day 1 |
Day 3 |
Day 7 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | C Statistic | Variable | C Statistic | Variable | C Statistic |
| Gestational age | 0.750 | Gestational age | 0.745 | Respiratory support | 0.771 |
| Birth weight | 0.772 | Respiratory support | 0.787 | Gestational age | 0.806 |
| FiO2 | 0.784 | Birth weight | 0.798 | Birth weight | 0.814 |
| Respiratory support | 0.790 | FiO2 | 0.805 | FiO2 | 0.817 |
| Race and ethnicity | 0.791 | Male sex | 0.807 | Race and ethnicity | 0.817 |
| Male sex | 0.793 | Race and ethnicity | 0.807 | Male sex | 0.818 |
| Day 14 |
Day 21 |
Day 28 |
|||
| Variable |
C Statistic |
Variable |
C Statistic |
Variable |
C Statistic |
| Respiratory support | 0.795 | Respiratory support | 0.802 | Respiratory support | 0.823 |
| Birth weight | 0.819 | FiO2 | 0.831 | FiO2 | 0.852 |
| Gestational age | 0.825 | Gestational age | 0.833 | Birth weight | 0.851 |
| FiO2 | 0.826 | Birth weight | 0.835 | Race and ethnicity | 0.853 |
| Race and ethnicity | 0.826 | Race and ethnicity | 0.835 | Gestational age | 0.853 |
| Male sex | 0.827 | Male sex | 0.836 | Male sex | 0.854 |
For example, on Day 7, respiratory support provides 77.1% of the predictive ability of the C statistic, with a small incremental increase in the C statistic with additional variables to a final model C statistic of 81.8%.