. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Aug 14.

Published in final edited form as: Arch Intern Med. 2011 Feb 14;171(3):218–225. doi: 10.1001/archinternmed.2010.525

Table 1.

Clinical Parameters, Values, and Plausible Ranges

Parameter	Base-Case Value (Range)	Source
Relative Risk of Events

Aspirin Alone
Angina	1.00 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.20)	Assumption
Stroke	1.06 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.24)	11
Myocardial infarction	0.70 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.79)	11
CHD death, males	0.87 (95% CI: 0.70, 1.09)	16
Gastrointestinal bleed (no history of gastrointestinal bleed)	2.00	6
Gastrointestinal bleed (with history of gastrointestinal bleed)	10.00	6

Aspirin+PPI
Gastrointestinal bleed	0.20 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.90)	13

Mortality
Proportion of hemorrhage strokes that are fatal	0.33 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.50)	Expert clinical opinion
Death due to gastrointestinal bleed	0.001 (range: 0.00001, 0.1)	Expert clinical opinion

Increase in Risk of Mortality
After Initial CHD Event
After myocardial infarction	3.7 (95% CI: 3.0, 4.7)	14
After angina	3.0 (95% CI: 2.1, 4.2)	14
After stroke	2.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 4.6)	15
Reduction of death due to aspirin therapy after a CV event	0.85 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.90)	17

CHD = coronary heart disease; CI = confidence interval; CV = cardiovascular; PPI = proton pump inhibitor.