Table 2.

Elicited prior mean probabilities for each (c, q) combination studied in the IA tPA trial, and resulting parameter prior means

a. Elicited Prior Mean Probabilities
					c = 0.20	c = 0.30	c = 0.40	c = 0.50
			q = .10	E{p0(c, q, θ)}	0.10	0.15	0.15	0.25
				E{FE(½ | c, q, θ)}	0.25	0.30	0.45	0.50
				E{FE(1 | c, q, θ)}	0.35	0.45	0.60	0.70
				E{πT(0, c, q, θ)}	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03
				E{πT(1, c, q, θ)}	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.12
			q = .20	E{p0(c, q, θ)}	0.15	0.20	0.25	0.30
				E{FE(½ | c, q, θ)}	0.40	0.45	0.50	0.60
				E{FE(1 | c, q, θ)}	0.50	0.60	0.70	0.80
				E{πT(0, c, q, θ)}	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03
				E{πT(1, c, q, θ)}	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.12
			q = .10 or .20		E{πT(.50, q, 1(YE > 1), θ)} = .15
b. Prior Mean of the Log of Each Model Parameter
α 0	α 1	α 2	α 3	α 4	α 5	β 0	β 1	β 2	β 3	β 4
−1.04	−1.60	−7.25	−4.74	−2.85	2.37	−6.10	−3.79	−7.05	−5.42	−7.88