Cumulative mortality predicted from prognostic models compared to Kaplan-Meier curves of observed mortality for a group of patients at medium risk starting combination antiretroviral treatment in four programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. The upper panel shows the comparison with CD4 count model, the lower panel with total lymphocyte count/haemoglobin (TLC/Hb) model.
Patients had the following characteristics: female, age<40, advanced disease stage, weight 50–59 kg and CD4 100–199 cells/μL or severe anaemia and TLC 800–1199/μL.