Table 2. Unadjusted hazard ratio and risk of death association basing on selected parameters.
| Predictor | HR1 | p (Cox regression) | Lower 95%CI | Upper 95%CI | 5-years KM death estimate (%) | 10-years KM death estimate (%) | 15-years KM death estimate (%) | p value for 15 year KM estimate (log-rank test) | AIC* |
| CCR5 genotype | |||||||||
| Wt/Δ32 | reference | 3.23 | 14.45 | 20.56 | 0.026 | 1090.89 | |||
| Wt/wt | 2.28 | 0.039 | 1.06 | 4.92 | 12.74 | 25.85 | 33.57 | ||
| Transmission route | |||||||||
| IDU | reference | 10.03 | 25.76 | 33.02 | 0.939 | 1096.48 | |||
| SEX | 0.98 | 0.939 | 0.65 | 1.48 | 12.35 | 20.91 | 28.98 | ||
| Hepatitis C co-infection status | |||||||||
| HCV (−) | reference | 8.28 | 18.05 | 28.22 | 0.566 | 1096.27 | |||
| HCV (+) | 1.15 | 0.556 | 0.72 | 1.86 | 9.43 | 21.65 | 28.73 | ||
| Gender | |||||||||
| Female | reference | 8.60 | 13.49 | 19.33 | 0.017 | 1090.17 | |||
| Male | 1.90 | 0.019 | 1.11 | 3.25 | 12.49 | 28.09 | 36.12 | ||
| HIV infection stage at diagnosis | |||||||||
| Asymptomatic | reference | 4.91 | 22.94 | 29.10 | 0.09 | 1093.66 | |||
| Symptomatic | 1.43 | 0.096 | 0.94 | 2.18 | 15.15 | 24.24 | 33.55 | ||
| History of antiretroviral treatment | |||||||||
| cART >1 month | reference | 8.91 | 18.47 | 27.13 | <0.0001 | 1068.35 | |||
| Never on cART or <1 month | 3.83 | <0.0001 | 2.46 | 5.98 | 26.11 | 62.84 | 62.84 | ||
| Baseline viral load (log copies/ml) | |||||||||
| VL baseline* >5 log | reference | 6.49 | 12.77 | 18.21 | 0.526 | n/a* | |||
| VL baseline <5 log | 1.25 | 0.523 | 0.63 | 2.45 | 10.11 | 16.55 | 22.97 | ||
| Baseline lymphocyte CD4 count (cells/µl) | |||||||||
| CD4 baseline >100 | reference | 7.73 | 18.91 | 27.34 | 0.0002 | 1082.41 | |||
| CD4 baseline <100 | 2.26 | 0.0001 | 1.49 | 3.41 | 19.07 | 33.49 | 41.10 | ||
| CD4 baseline >50 | reference | 8.53 | 19.38 | 27.67 | <0.0001 | 1081.24 | |||
| CD4 baseline <50 | 2.46 | <0.0001 | 1.61 | 3.77 | 21.09 | 38.87 | 45.79 | ||
| CD4 baseline >25 | reference | 9.56 | 22.68 | 30.27 | 0.022 | 1092.29 | |||
| CD4 baseline <25 | 1.76 | 0.028 | 1.060 | 2.920 | 21.46 | 29.02 | 40.21 | ||
| Nadir lymphocyte CD4 count (cells/µl) | |||||||||
| CD4 nadir >100 | reference | 6.34 | 17.66 | 20.87 | 0.0003 | 1084.79 | |||
| CD4 nadir <100 | 2.17 | 0.0004 | 1.42 | 3.34 | 16.54 | 28.06 | 40.88 | ||
| CD4 nadir >50 | reference | 7.51 | 17.13 | 22.17 | <0.0001 | 1080.51 | |||
| CD4 nadir <50 | 2.50 | <0.0001 | 1.64 | 3.8 | 18.33 | 33.81 | 46.66 | ||
| CD4 nadir >25 | reference | 8.97 | 20.27 | 26.81 | 0.014 | 1091.46 | |||
| CD4 nadir <25 | 1.80 | 0.014 | 1.13 | 2.88 | 17.55 | 29.48 | 42.41 | ||
| Zenith lymphocyte CD4 count (cells/µl) | |||||||||
| CD4 zenith >500 | reference | 2.60 | 8.34 | 10.79 | <0.0001 | 1046.57 | |||
| CD4 zenith <500 | 5.51 | <0.0001 | 3.25 | 9.34 | 20.79 | 38.80 | 48.77 | ||
| Time with lymphocyte CD4 count >500 cells/µl | |||||||||
| At least 180 days | reference | 1.15 | 5.43 | 7.06 | <0.0001 | 1047.98 | |||
| Less than 180 days | 7.73 | <0.0001 | 3.741 | 16.00 | 17.50 | 34.17 | 43.80 | ||
| At least one year | reference | 0.71 | 4.74 | 6.71 | <0.0001 | 1057.46 | |||
| Less than one year | 7.95 | <0.0001 | 3.47 | 18.20 | 15.54 | 31.32 | 40.39 | ||
| Most recent lymphocyte CD4 count (cells/µl) | |||||||||
| Last CD4 >500 | reference | 2.42 | 7.74 | 11.26 | <0.0001 | 1062.36 | |||
| Last CD4 <500 | 4.84 | <0.0001 | 2.582 | 9.085 | 16.33 | 32.33 | 41.57 | ||
| Last CD4 >100 | reference | 5.73 | 13.70 | 19.98 | <0.0001 | 1001.18 | |||
| Last CD4 <100 | 9.23 | <0.0001 | 6.128 | 13.92 | 43.52 | 73.93 | 87.64 | ||
| Last CD4 >50 | reference | 7.18 | 15.61 | 23.35 | <0.0001 | 1011.89 | |||
| Last CD4 <50 | 10.13 | <0.0001 | 6.619 | 15.51 | 47.42 | 84.76 | 92.38 | ||
| Last CD4 >25 | reference | 8.92 | 19.76 | 27.03 | <0.0001 | 1051.07 | |||
| Last CD4 <25 | 8.48 | <0.0001 | 5.124 | 14.07 | 49.46 | 79.32 | 100.0 | ||
| History of AIDS | |||||||||
| AIDS-free | reference | 6.29 | 14.66 | 17.75 | <0.0001 | 1063.16 | |||
| AIDS-diagnosed | 3.30 | <0.0001 | 2.582 | 9.085 | 19.45 | 38.48 | 50.40 | ||
*For AIC calculations equal group size was used, baseline viral load was excluded from this calculation due to poor availability (288 individuals only).
1
Univariate HR (Hazard Ratio) calculated by unadjusted Cox regression for the same sample sizes as described in the table 1.