Table 1.

Risk factors, screening, and treatment assumptions using continuation of 2005 levels and optimistic levels for 2010 and 2020

Risk factor		2005 levels (%)	2010 optimistic assumptions (%)	2020 optimistic assumptions (%)
Current smokers	White, male	21	8	4
	White, Female	18	8	7
	Black, Male	29	15	10
	Black, Female	18	8	9
Obese	White, Male	31	30	27
	White, Female	38	41	45
	Black, Male	30	29	30
	Black, Female	56	58	57
Moderate or vigorous physical activity	White, Male	33	35	42
	White, Female	30	33	40
	Black, Male	37	38	38
	Black, Female	28	32	35
Eating five or more servings of fruits /vegetables per day	White, Male	44	47	51
	White, Female	36	39	45
	Black, Male	37	41	48
	Black, Female	34	37	38
Using multivitamins	White, Male	49	62	75
	White, Female	48	58	68
	Black, Male	24	30	38
	Black, Female	30	37	36
Receiving hormone replacement therapy*	White, Female	10	9	9
	Black, Female	3	3	3
Eating two or more servings/week of red meat	White, Male	30	29	26
	White, Female	23	21	16
	Black, Male	32	32	32
	Black, Female	24	21	17
Aspirin/NSAID users*	White, Male	45	50	56
	White, Female	46	49	53
	Black, Male	19	19	19
	Black, Female	24	22	20
Screening behavior
Aged >50 years have had FOBT within past 2 years	White, Male	24	22	23
	White, Female	25	23	25
	Black, Male	20	22	23
	Black, Female	23	24	26
Aged >50 years, have had a sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy at some point in their life*	White, Male	54	63	70
	White, Female	49	59	69
	Black, Male	44	50	59
	Black, Female	43	55	64
Adjuvant chemotherapy use by stage
Stage II
Not receiving chemotherapy	Whites	51	47	47
	Blacks	59	47	47
Receiving 5FU	Whites	20	0	0
	Blacks	16	0	0
Receiving FOLFOX	Whites	29	53	53
	Blacks	25	53	53
Stage III
Not receiving chemotherapy	Whites	24	19	19
	Blacks	36	19	19
Receiving 5FU	Whites	28	0	0
	Blacks	23	0	0
Receiving FOLFOX	Whites	48	81	81
	Blacks	41	00	00
Stage IV cancer
Not receiving chemotherapy	Whites	30	23	23
	Blacks	41	23	23
Receiving 5FU	Whites	5	0	0
	Blacks	4	0	0
Receiving 5FU + irinotecan	Whites	1	0	0
	Blacks	1	0	0
Receiving FOLFOX	Whites	13	0	0
	Blacks	11	0	0
Receiving FOLFOX + antibodies	Whites	50	77	77
	Blacks	43	77	77

^*Value is the projected trend level. An optimistic goal was not used because the risks from hormone replacement therapy and aspirin/NSAID use may outweigh the benefits.

Risk factor prevalence is based on data from four waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1971–1975, 1976–1980, 1988–1994, and 1999–2002.

Screening dissemination is based on data from the National Health Interview Survey in 1987, 1992, 1998, and 2000.

Use of adjuvant chemotherapy is estimated from the published literature.^20–31

FOBT, fecal occult blood test; FOLFOX, FU, NSAID