Table 1.
Individual-level exposures and absolute risk of acute cardiovascular events for individuals at low (5%), intermediate (10%) and high (20%) ten-year risk of acute cardiovascular events according to the Framingham Risk Score.
| Number Needed to Harm by Ten- Year Framingham Risk of CHD |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exposure | Outcome | RR per Episode |
5% | 10% | 20% |
| physical activity, sedentary | |||||
| MI17 | 107.0 | 16,123 | 7,850 | 3,707 | |
| MI18 | 100.7 | 17,142 | 8,346 | 3,941 | |
| MI19 | 6.9 | 289,661 | 141,018 | 66,584 | |
| MI81 | 30.5 | 57,933 | 28,204 | 13,317 | |
| MI33 | 27.5 | 64,515 | 31,409 | 14,830 | |
| MI82 | 26.0 | 68,360 | 33,281 | 15,714 | |
| ischemic stroke83 | 6.8 | 294,655 | 143,449 | 67,732 | |
| sudden death20 | 74.1 | 46,758 | 22,764 | 10,749 | |
| physical activity, active | |||||
| MI17 | 2.4 | 1,220,712 | 594,287 | 280,602 | |
| MI18 | 3.3 | 743,042 | 361,740 | 170,801 | |
| MI19 | 1.3 | 5,696,655 | 2,773,339 | 1,309,475 | |
| MI81 | 1.2 | 8,544,982 | 4,160,008 | 1,964,212 | |
| MI33 | 1.3 | 5,178,777 | 2,521,217 | 1,190,432 | |
| MI82 | 1.2 | 8,544,982 | 4,160,008 | 1,964,212 | |
| ischemic stroke83 | 2.0 | 1,708,997 | 832,002 | 392,843 | |
| sudden death20 | 10.9 | 345,252 | 168,082 | 79,362 | |
| sexual activity | |||||
| MI31 | 2.5 | 569,666 | 277,335 | 130,948 | |
| MI32 | 2.1 | 1,553,634 | 756,365 | 357,130 | |
| MI33 | 5.5 | 191,164 | 93,066 | 43,943 | |
| respiratory tract infection | |||||
| MI33 | 1.5 | 24,728 | 12,040 | 5,686 | |
| MI38 | 5.0 | 6,010 | 2,926 | 1,382 | |
| ischemic/hemorrhagic stroke38 |
3.2 | 10,839 | 5,277 | 2,492 | |
| caffeinated coffee, frequent | |||||
| MI41 | 1.1 | 28,483,272 | 13,866,692 | 6,547,372 | |
| ischemic stroke43 | 1.0 | 35,604,090 | 17,333,365 | 8,184,215 | |
| caffeinated coffee, infrequent | |||||
| MI41 | 4.1 | 544,267 | 264,969 | 125,110 | |
| ischemic stroke43 | 3.1 | 798,597 | 388,786 | 183,572 | |
| alcohol | ischemic stroke48 | 2.3 | 1,314,613 | 640,002 | 302,187 |
| heavy meals | ACS52 | 4.0 | 569,666 | 277,334 | 130,948 |
| cocaine | MI53 | 23.7 | 75,287 | 36,653 | 17,306 |
| marijuana | MI54 | 4.8 | 449,736 | 218,948 | 103,380 |
| anger | MI14 | 2.3 | 657,307 | 320,001 | 151,094 |
| anger | MI55 | 9.0 | 106,813 | 52,001 | 24,553 |
| depressed mood | ACS58 | 4.3 | 513,213 | 249,851 | 117,971 |
| work stress | MI57 | 6.0 | 14,242 | 6,934 | 3,274 |
Number Needed to Harm: number of exposed individuals required to lead to one excess case
Note: These estimates do not account for the decrease in baseline risk with increasing frequency of habitual physical activity. Estimates for the absolute and relative increase per year can also be constructed using the exponential formula fir relating rates and risks.86