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. 2011 Jul 16;378(9787):247–255. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60779-4

Table 3.

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of size and shape of the kernel (used to derive the male community-level sexual behaviour variables) and an alternative community-level concurrency measure on a woman's hazard of HIV acquisition (N=7284)

HR (95% CI) p value
Gaussian 3·8 km radius (SD 1)
Mean lifetime partners
Unadjusted 1·12 (1·06–1·20) 0·0002
Adjusted A 1·11 (1·04–1·18) 0·002
Adjusted A+B 1·12 (1·04–1·20) 0·002
Prevalence of concurrency, 10% increase
Unadjusted 1·00 (0·93–1·08) 0·967
Adjusted A 1·02 (0·94–1·11) 0·568
Adjusted A+B 0·97 (0·89–1·06) 0·567
Gaussian 3 km radius (SD 3)
Mean lifetime partners
Unadjusted 1·17 (1·08–1·28) 0·0003
Adjusted A 1·11 (1·01–1·23) 0·035
Adjusted A+B 1·14 (1·02–1·27) 0·019
Prevalence of concurrency, 10% increase
Unadjusted 0·96 (0·87–1·07) 0·501
Adjusted A 0·99 (0·88–1·10) 0·831
Adjusted A+B 0·94 (0·83–1·06) 0·291
Gaussian 2·5 km radius (SD 1)
Mean lifetime partners
Unadjusted 1·07 (1·02–1·12) 0·003
Adjusted A 1·07 (1·02–1·12) 0·006
Adjusted A+B 1·07 (1·02–1·13) 0·007
Prevalence of concurrency, 10% increase
Unadjusted 0·99 (0·93–1·05) 0·888
Adjusted A 1·02 (0·96–1·08) 0·628
Adjusted A+B 1·00 (0·94–1·06) 0·718
Gaussian 3 km radius (SD 1), mean number of concurrent partners*
Unadjusted 1·06 (0·87–1·29) 0·553
Adjusted A 1·10 (0·90–1·35) 0·329
Adjusted A+B 0·88 (0·69–1·14) 0·332

HR=hazard ratio. The unadjusted model includes only the male community-level sexual behaviour covariate. The adjusted A model includes one of the community-level sexual behaviour covariates and community level HIV prevalence (male), partners in past 12 months, marital status, years of education, urban locale, wealth tertile, and age. The adjusted A + B model included all the independent variables included in model A (in the row immediately above) and the community-level sexual behaviour covariate not included in model A.

*

An alternative community-level indicator of partnership concurrency.