Table 1.

Model inputs

Clinical inputs for transition probabilities	Values			Sources
Baseline features
Age distribution (mean in years)	70.5			Blotman et al. 2007 [7]
Prior fracture (%)	59.7
Fracture probabilities
Absolute risk by age (% per year)	Vertebrae	Hip	Wrist
50-54 years	3.10	0.00	2.99
55-59 years	3.59	0.06	3.20
60-64 years	4.15	0.20	3.18	Cotté et al. 2009 [24]
65-69 years	4.81	0.34	2.06
70-74 years	5.56	0.65	1.97
75-79 years	6.44	1.04	1.17
80-84 years	7.45	1.62	0.92
> 84 years	8.62	3.52	0.92
Relative risk	Vertebrae	Hip	Wrist
associated with any prior fracture at baseline	2.0	2.0	1.9
post-vertebral fracture health state	4.4	2.3	1.4	Klotzbuecher et al. 2000 [25]
post-hip fracture health state	2.5	2.3	NA
post-wrist fracture health state	1.7	1.9	3.3
Relative risk reduction with BP	Vertebrae	Hip	Wrist
for any women at baseline	0.526	0.672	0.833
from post-vertebral fracture health state	0.575	0.620	NA	Kanis et al. 2002 [9]
from post-hip fracture health state	NA	0.620	NA
from post-wrist fracture health state	0.575	0.620	0.566
Loss of bisphosphonate protection
Treatment duration (T; in months)	Persistence rates (P; in %)
Start	100			Fardellone et al. 2005 [28]
6	65			*Source data were fitted to an exponential function to generate persistence curve over 24 months:
12	51			P = 1 - 0.196 × ln(T)
24	41
36	30*
48	24*
60 to simulation ending time	20*
Treatment duration (T; in months)	Protection duration** (y; in months)
Start	0			Cotté et al. 2009 [39]
12	24			**Residual effect of BP was modeled as follow:
24	43			y = 13.5 × e0.048 × T
36	76
48	All simulation period
60 to simulation ending time	All simulation period