Table 1.
Delphi procedure results
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | mean (SD) | rank n = 46 | sum score | rank n = 65 | inclusion agreement | rank |
| Symptom duration | 4.26 (0.78) | 1 | 253 | 1 | 100% | 1 |
| Pain catastrophizing | 4.03 (0.95) | 3 | 160 | 2 | 84% | 2 |
| Symptom history | 4.06 (0.80) | 2 | 95 | 3 | 90% | 3 |
| Fear-avoidance beliefs | 3.91 (1.04) | 6 | 86 | 4 | 90% | 4 |
| Coexisting neck pain | 3.49 (1.12) | 22 | 79 | 5 | 100% | 5 |
| Baseline severity of shoulder disability | 3.49 (1.07) | 21 | 78 | 6 | 97% | 6 |
| Coexisting psychological complaints/general mental health problems | 3.83 (0.95) | 9 | 73 | 7 | 84% | -b |
| Currently on sick leave because of shoulder pain | 3.69 (0.87) | 11 | 70 | 8 | 81% | -c |
| Multisite pain | n = 10a | - | 68 | 9 | 84% | 7 |
| Somatisation | 4.00 (0.97) | 4 | 67 | 10 | 84% | -d |
| Age | 3.58 (0.73) | 17 | 64 | 11 | 19% | 8 |
| Shoulder pain intensity | 3.49 (1.24) | 23 | 64 | 12 | 13% | 9 |
| Illness perceptions | 3.91 (1.01) | 5 | 62 | 13 | 13% | 10 |
| Depression/depressive symptoms | 3.91 (1.07) | 7 | 61 | 14 | 10% | - |
| Passive coping strategies | 3.63 (1.06) | 15 | 60 | 15 | 6% | - |
| Repetitive movements | 3.86 (0.81) | 8 | 46 | 16 | 3% | - |
| High physical load at work or leisure time | n = 11a | - | 39 | 17 | 6% | - |
| Strain or overuse due to usual activities in work or leisure time | 3.43 (1.06) | 25 | 32 | 18 | 10% | - |
| Patient reports stiffness of the shoulder | 3.06 (0.97) | 30 | 32 | 19 | 6% | - |
| Diabetes Mellitus | n = 2a | - | 32 | 20 | 10% | - |
Predictors (only the 20 most highly ranked from round 2) are ordered by their prognostic importance as assessed in the second Delphi round
mean = mean score for rating individual potential predictor importance, [1 (not at all predictive) - 5 (highly predictive)]
SD = standard deviation
rank = the order of appearance of potential predictors in individual Delphi rounds based on scores for prognostic importance
sum score = the sum of all scores for predictive importance for each potential predictor
inclusion agreement = consensus on the inclusion of potential predictors in the selection of the ten most important predictors for persistent shoulder pain intensity
a additional potential predictor added by n panel members
b potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'fear-avoidance' and the item is 'too general'
c potential predictor combined with predictor 'severity of shoulder disability'
d potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'multisite pain' and 'fear avoidance'