Table 4.

Performance measures for the expert-based and statistically derived prognostic models

	Expert model dicho	Expert model cont	Statistical model
calibration slope	1.017	0.986	1.019
R2N	0.098	0.13	0.162
AUC	0.656	0.679	0.702
95% CI	0.612 - 0.700	0.636 - 0.722	0.660 - 0.745
Optimism	0.029	0.028	0.014
AUCcorrected	0.627	0.651	0.688

Expert model dicho = prognostic model using dichotomized expert selected predictors

Expert model cont = prognostic model using continuous expert selected predictors

R²_N = Nagelkerke's explained variance

AUC = Discriminative ability as indicated by the Area Under the ROC Curve

95% CI = 95% confidence interval for the AUC

Optimism = the models' estimated deterioration when applied to new subjects

AUCcorrected = the optimism corrected Area Under the ROC Curve