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. 2011 Jul 25;6(7):e22151. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022151

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Each line is the empirical cumulative probability (for 100 simulations) of the first autochthonous transmission event in a single city in a single model. The dotted lines are for a city closely connected to the origin city for the traveler (black) and migration (red) models. The solid lines are for a more distal city. A. is the directly transmitted pathogen and B. is the vector-borne pathogen.