Table 4.
Internal Rates of Return (%), by Imputation and Extrapolation Method and Assumptions About Crime Costs Assuming 50% Deadweight Cost of Taxation
| Returns: | To Individual | To Society, Including the Individual (Nets out Transfers) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victimization/Arrest Ratioa | Separated | Separated | Property vs. Violent | ||||||||||
| Murder Victim Costb | High ($4.1M) | Low ($13K) | Low ($13K) | ||||||||||
| Imputation Extrapolation | Allc | Male | Female | Allc | Male | Female | Allc | Male | Female | Allc | Male | Female | |
| Piecewise Linear Interpolationd |
CPS | 6.0 (1.7) |
5.0 (1.8) |
7.7 (1.8) |
8.9 (4.9) |
9.7 (4.2) |
15.4 (4.3) |
7.7 (2.6) |
9.7 (3.0) |
9.5 (2.7) |
7.7 (3.9) |
10.1 (4.5) |
10.2 (3.6) |
| PSID | 4.8 (1.6) |
2.5 (1.8) |
7.4 (1.5) |
7.3 (5.0) |
8.0 (4.1) |
15.3 (3.7) |
7.6 (2.7) |
9.2 (3.1) |
10.0 (2.8) |
7.2 (3.7) |
9.5 (4.4) |
10.5 (3.1) |
|
| Cross- Sectional Regressione |
CPS | 5.0 (1.4) |
4.8 (1.5) |
6.8 (1.3) |
7.3 (4.5) |
8.3 (4.1) |
14.2 (4.0) |
7.4 (2.3) |
10.0 (2.9) |
8.7 (2.2) |
7.2 (3.4) |
10.1 (4.0) |
9.2 (3.3) |
| PSID | 4.9 (1.6) |
4.3 (1.8) |
5.9 (1.5) |
8.6 (2.3) |
9.8 (3.3) |
14.9 (5.2) |
7.2 (2.9) |
10.0 (3.0) |
7.8 (1.5) |
7.2 (3.7) |
10.4 (4.1) |
8.7 (1.5) |
|
| Hause | 4.8 (1.4) |
4.9 (1.4) |
6.8 (1.2) |
7.3 (4.0) |
8.5 (4.2) |
14.9 (3.4) |
7.2 (2.7) |
10.0 (2.9) |
8.7 (2.3) |
7.1 (3.0) |
10.1 (4.1) |
9.3 (3.2) |
|
| Kernel Matchingf |
CPS | 6.9 (1.3) |
7.6 (1.1) |
6.6 (1.4) |
8.1 (4.5) |
9.5 (4.1) |
14.7 (3.2) |
8.5 (2.5) |
11.2 (2.9) |
8.8 (2.9) |
8.5 (3.5) |
11.1 (4.3) |
9.4 (3.5) |
| PSID | 6.2 (1.2) |
6.8 (1.1) |
6.8 (1.0) |
9.2 (2.9) |
10.7 (3.2) |
14.9 (4.8) |
8.1 (2.6) |
11.1 (3.1) |
8.1 (1.7) |
8.1 (2.9) |
11.4 (3.0) |
9.0 (2.0) |
|
| Hause | 6.3 (1.2) |
8.0 (1.2) |
7.1 (1.3) |
8.4 (4.3) |
9.7 (4.0) |
14.6 (4.0) |
8.8 (2.3) |
11.2 (2.5) |
9.3 (2.4) |
8.5 (3.2) |
11.2 (4.2) |
9.6 (3.7) |
|
| Hauseg | CPS | 7.1 (2.5) |
6.5 (2.7) |
6.5 (2.0) |
8.0 (4.7) |
8.9 (4.2) |
14.7 (4.2) |
8.5 (2.6) |
10.5 (2.2) |
8.6 (2.7) |
8.3 (3.1) |
10.5 (4.0) |
9.1 (3.3) |
| PSID | 7.0 (3.0) |
6.0 (2.9) |
6.2 (2.2) |
9.7 (3.7) |
10.5 (3.8) |
14.8 (5.6) |
8.8 (3.2) |
11.0 (3.4) |
7.4 (2.5) |
8.8 (3.7) |
11.3 (3.1) |
8.4 (3.2) |
|
| Hause | 6.5 (2.3) |
5.7 (2.0) |
6.3 (1.8) |
7.8 (4.7) |
8.7 (4.2) |
14.5 (3.5) |
8.2 (2.5) |
10.6 (3.0) |
8.5 (2.7) |
8.2 (3.3) |
11.0 (4.0) |
9.4 (3.6) |
|
Notes: Standard errors in parentheses are calculated by Monte Carlo resampling of prediction errors and bootstrapping. All estimates are adjusted for compromised randomization. All available local data and the full sample are used unless otherwise noted.
A ratio of victimization rate (from the NCVS) to arrest rate (from the UCR), where “Property vs. Violent” uses common ratios based on a crime being either violent or property and “separate” does not;
“high” murder cost valuation accounts for statistical value of life, while “low” does not;
The “all” IRR represents an average of the profiles of a pooled sample of males and females, and may be lower or higher than the profiles for each gender group;
Piecewise linear interpolation between each pair reported;
Cross-sectional regression imputation using a cross-sectional earnings estimation from the NLSY79 black low-ability subsample.
Kernel-matching imputation matches each Perry subject to the NLSY79 sample based on earnings, job spell durations, and background variables;
Based on the Hause (1980) earnings model