Table 7.
Comparison of IRRs and B/C Ratios between age ranges (Kernel Matching & PSID projection)
| Return To… | Individual | Societya | Society | Society | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrest Ratiob Murder Costc |
Separate High ($4.1M) |
Separate Low ($13K) |
Prop. / Violent Low ($13K) |
|||||||||||
| Deadweight Lossd | Alle | Male | Fem. | All | Male | Fem. | All | Male | Fem. | All | Male | Fem. | ||
| IRR | 50% | Age ≤ 65 | 6.2 (1.2) |
6.8 (1.1) |
6.8 (1.0) |
9.2 (2.9) |
10.7 (3.2) |
14.9 (4.8) |
8.1 (2.6) |
11.1 (3.1) |
8.1 (1.7) |
8.1 (2.9) |
11.4 (3.0) |
9.0 (2.0) |
| Age ≤ 40 | 4.9 (1.9) |
5.9 (1.5) |
5.6 (1.2) |
8.8 (3.4) |
10.3 (3.3) |
14.9 (5.2) |
7.5 (3.0) |
10.7 (3.0) |
7.9 (2.3) |
7.5 (3.4) |
11.1 (3.1) |
8.9 (2.4) |
||
| Benefit-Cost Ratios | Discount Rate | All | Male | Fem. | All | Male | Fem. | All | Male | Fem. | ||||
| 0% | Age ≤ 65 | – | – | – | 31.5 (11.3) |
33.7 (17.3) |
27.0 (14.4) |
19.1 (5.4) |
22.8 (8.3) |
12.7 (3.8) |
21.4 (6.1) |
25.6 (9.6) |
14.0 (4.3) |
|
| Age ≤ 40 | – | – | – | 22.5 (9.5) |
24.7 (14.6) |
18.2 (11.2) |
12.4 (4.7) |
15.4 (7.0) |
7.3 (3.3) |
14.3 (5.4) |
17.8 (8.2) |
8.3 (3.7) |
||
| 3% | Age ≤ 65 | – | – | – | 12.2 (5.3) |
12.1 (8.0) |
11.6 (7.1) |
7.1 (2.3) |
8.6 (3.7) |
4.5 (1.4) |
7.9 (2.7) |
9.5 (4.4) |
5.1 (1.7) |
|
| Age ≤ 40 | – | – | – | 9.8 (4.9) |
9.7 (7.3) |
9.5 (6.3) |
5.4 (2.2) |
6.5 (3.4) |
3.2 (1.5) |
6.1 (2.6) |
7.4 (4.0) |
3.8 (1.7) |
||
| 5% | Age ≤ 65 | – | – | – | 6.8 (3.4) |
6.2 (5.1) |
7.1 (4.6) |
3.9 (1.5) |
4.7 (2.3) |
2.4 (0.8) |
4.3 (1.7) |
5.1 (2.8) |
2.8 (1.1) |
|
| Age ≤ 40 | – | – | – | 5.8 (3.2) |
5.2 (4.8) |
6.3 (4.3) |
3.2 (1.4) |
3.8 (2.2) |
1.9 (0.9) |
3.6 (1.6) |
4.2 (2.6) |
2.3 (1.1) |
||
| 7% | Age ≤ 65 | – | – | – | 3.9 (2.3) |
3.2 (3.4) |
4.6 (3.1) |
2.2 (0.9) |
2.7 (1.5) |
1.4 (0.5) |
2.5 (1.1) |
2.9 (1.8) |
1.7 (0.7) |
|
| Age ≤ 40 | – | – | – | 3.5 (2.2) |
2.7 (3.3) |
4.2 (3.0) |
1.9 (0.9) |
2.3 (1.5) |
1.2 (0.6) |
2.1 (1.1) |
2.4 (1.8) |
1.5 (0.7) |
||
Notes: Kernel matching is used to impute missing values in earnings before age-40, and PSID projection for extrapolation of later earnings. For details of these procedures, see Section 3. In calculating benefit-to-cost ratios, deadweight loss of taxation is assumed at 50%. Lifetime net benefit streams are adjusted for corrupted randomization by being conditioned on unbalanced pre-program variables. For details, see Section 4. Standard errors in parentheses are calculated by Monte Carlo resampling of prediction errors and bootstrapping; see Web Appendix K for details.
The sum of returns to program participants and the general public;
“high” murder cost accounts for statistical value of life, while “low” does not;
Deadweight cost is dollars of welfare loss per tax dollar;
A ratio of victimization rate (from the NCVS) to arrest rate (from the UCR), where “Prop. /Violent” uses common ratios based on a crime being either violent or property and “Separate” does not;
“All” is computed from an average of the profiles of the pooled sample, and may be lower or higher than the profiles for each gender group.