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. 2011 May 13;88(5):548–565. doi: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.04.001

Table 5.

Predicted Risk of Prostate Cancer in General Population

Percentile Lifetime Risk (95% CI) Incidence Rate Ratio (95% CI) 10-Year Risk at Age 50 (95% CI) 10-Year Risk at Age 60 (95% CI) NNS Age at which Risk > 2.11%
5 0.044 (0.043–0.053) 0.29 (0.28–0.35) 0.006 (0.006–0.007) 0.018 (0.017–0.021) 5477 64.3
10 0.059 (0.057–0.068) 0.39 (0.38–0.45) 0.008 (0.008–0.010) 0.023 (0.023–0.027) 4103 58.5
20 0.081 (0.079–0.089) 0.54 (0.53–0.60) 0.012 (0.011–0.013) 0.033 (0.032–0.036) 2949 54.8
30 0.100 (0.099–0.108) 0.69 (0.67–0.74) 0.014 (0.014–0.016) 0.041 (0.040–0.044) 2353 52.8
40 0.120 (0.119–0.125) 0.83 (0.82–0.87) 0.017 (0.017–0.018) 0.049 (0.049–0.051) 1956 51.3
50 0.140 (0.139–0.143) 0.98 (0.98–1.01) 0.021 (0.021–0.021) 0.058 (0.058–0.059) 1656 50.1
60 0.162 (0.162–0.163) 1.16 (1.16–1.17) 0.024 (0.024–0.025) 0.068 (0.068–0.068) 1411 49.0
70 0.189 (0.186–0.189) 1.38 (1.36–1.38) 0.029 (0.029–0.029) 0.080 (0.079–0.080) 1196 48.0
80 0.223 (0.216–0.224) 1.67 (1.61–1.68) 0.035 (0.034–0.035) 0.097 (0.093–0.097) 994 46.9
90 0.275 (0.261–0.278) 2.17 (2.03–2.19) 0.045 (0.042–0.046) 0.123 (0.116–0.125) 779 45.6
95 0.323 (0.302–0.327) 2.66 (2.43–2.71) 0.055 (0.051–0.056) 0.149 (0.137–0.151) 645 44.6

The incidence rate ratio is computed with reference to the general population. The following abbreviations are sued: CI, confidence interval; NNS, number of individuals that need to be screened in order to prevent one cancer death.