Table 4.

Financial outcomes of all risk factors if feasible targets achieved, corrected for joint effects

All 6 risk factors		95% Uncertainty Interval
AUD millions	Mean	Lower Limit	Upper Limit
Potential opportunity costs FCA
Production gains/(losses)	473	(2)	1,155
Recruitment/training costs	79	n/a	n/a
Leisure based production	110	(361)	602
Home based production	248	(69)	568
Total production FCA	830	(109)	1,843
Health sector offsets	1,504	1,504	1,504
Total Opportunity Cost Savings FCA	2,334	1,395	3,347
Sensitivity analysis using Human Capital Approach (HCA)
Financial Outcomes HCA
Production gains/(losses)	1,196	(648)	3,070
Leisure based production	110	(361)	602
Home based production	248	(69)	568
Total production HCA	1,553	(435)	3,569
Health sector offsets	1,504	1,504	1,504
Total Opportunity Cost Savings HCA	3,057	1,069	5,073

No probabilistic uncertainty analysis was conducted for health sector offsets because we were unable to quantify uncertainty for these point estimates. Taxation is treated as a transfer payment and should not be added to production effects or health sector offsets. HCA: Human Capital Approach; FCA Friction Cost Approach (preferred conservative estimate). Leisure and home based production estimates are based on persons 15+ years. Production gains/(losses) and taxation effects are based on persons 15-64 years. Recruitment and training costs are included in production gains/losses using the FCA, but not counted using the HCA. Values are net present value using a 3% discount rate. Numbers in brackets ( ) indicate the possibility of losses resulting from achieving the target, rather than gains.