Table 3.

Logistic regression model for predicting 52 week mortality using standard baseline measurements and baseline cytokines

Variable	Coefficient	Std. error	p-value
intercept	−2.287	0.919	0.013
BUN	0.035	0.006	0.00001
ejection fraction	−0.068	0.016	0.00002
lymphocytes	−0.028	0.013	0.02
cardio-thoracic ratio	3.108	1.31	0.021
X2	0.212	0.09	0.018
X3	−0.238	0.09	0.009

C-statistic with ten-fold cross-validation = 0.74 ± 0.04

X2 = 0.2 log TNF + 0.11 log sTNFR1 + 0.09 log sTNFR2 + 0.71 log IL6 + 0.008 log sIL6R

X3 = 0.4 log TNF − 0.09 log sTNFR1 − 0.08 log sTNFR2 − 0.134 log IL6 + 0.015 log sIL6R

P(non-survival) = −2.287 + 0.035 * BUN −0.068 * EF − 0.028 * lymph + 3.108 * CT-ratio + 0.212 * X2 – 0.238 * X3

P(survival) = 1 − P(non-survival)