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. 2011 Jun 30;174(4):468–478. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwr113

Table 1.

Results From Studies That Estimated Infection Rates for H1N1 Influenza A, 2009

First Author, Year (Reference No.) Study Location Study Period Estimated Infection Rate Method of Estimation Details
Lipsitch, 2009 (7) Mexico April 2009 0.11%–0.35% during the month of April 2009 (population of 106,682,518) Surveillance data from travelers International public health records surveyed to estimate infection rates among travelers to Mexico
Cases among Mexican residents = cases in travelers × (Mexican population × 30 days)/(traveler population × duration of travel)
D'Ortenzio, 2010 (8) Réunion Island, France May 2009–September 2009 12.85% (104,067/810,000) Sentinel physician network, cross-sectional ARI prevalence survey Incidence of ARI consultations gathered from social insurance data, adjusted by the proportion of sentinel physician consultations
Health-care-seeking behavior in persons with ARI from a cross-sectional survey
Calculated by extrapolating the proportion of randomly selected ARI patients testing H1N1-positive in the total estimated no. of ARI cases
Dawood, 2010 (9) Hunter New England, Australia June 1, 2009–August 30, 2009 6.2% (range, 4.4%–8.2%) Syndromic surveillance and laboratory data Incidence of ILI from an online self-reporting ILI surveillance system
53,383 (range, 37,828–70,597) out a population of 866,565 Proportion of ILI samples that tested H1N1-positive from national laboratories
Using these data, the proportion of ILI cases due to H1N1 was estimated and extrapolated to the general population.
Gordon, 2010 (10) Nicaragua June 1, 2009–November 15, 2009 20.1% among children aged 2–14 years Syndromic surveillance, laboratory testing Cohort of children selected from an existing dengue study
Testing criteria were fever with cough, sore throat, or rhinorrhea
Samples were tested by RT-PCR to determine the H1N1 clinical attack rate.
No extrapolation to the general population was done.
Flahault, 2009 (5) France September 2009–December 2009 10.6% among pregnant women Cross-sectional seroprevalence Cross-sectional seroprevalence study from serum obtained from pregnant women in weeks 48–49 of 2009
1,712,000 cases (95% CI: 1,112,700, 2,311,300) in persons aged 20–39 years Cumulative seroprevalence was then estimated for the population aged 20–39 years.
Moghadami, 2010 (11) Iran December 2009 58.9% (1,504/2,553) Cross-sectional seroprevalence Single-sample cross-sectional seroprevalence study
Serum samples from randomly selected participants in the community
Miller, 2010 (12) England, United Kingdom August 2009–September 2009 Age group, years Cross-sectional seroprevalence Cross-sectional seroprevalence study involving pre- and postpandemic samples from blood collected for other purposes
    <5: 21.3% (95% CI: 8.8, 40.3)
    5–14: 42.0% (95% CI: 26.3, 58.2) Infection rates were estimated by subtracting prepandemic seroprevalence from postpandemic seroprevalence.
    15–24: 20.6% (95% CI: 1.6, 42.4)
    25–44: 6.2% (95% CI: −2.8, 18.7)
    45–64: −2.7% (95% CI: −10.3, 7.1)
    ≥65: 0.9% (95% CI: −8.8, 13.3)
Chan, 2010 (13) Taiwan, Republic of China October 2009–November 2009 30.8% among health-care workers Cross-sectional seroprevalence Single-sample cross-sectional seroprevalence study
12.6% among controls Serum samples taken from hospital staff and controls
Ross, 2010 (14) Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, United States Mid-November–early December 2009 21% (unadjusted) Cross-sectional seroprevalence Cross-sectional seroprevalence study with pre- and postpandemic samples
Range from 5% for persons aged 70–79 years to 45% for persons aged 10–19 years Prepandemic samples only from young adults aged 18–24 years
Baseline 6% among young adults aged 18–24 years Postpandemic samples from laboratory specimens collected for other purposes over a wide age range
Allwinn, 2010 (15) Germany November 2009 12% (27/225) with titer of ≥1:40 (unadjusted) Cross-sectional seroprevalence First sample from blood donors previously recruited for a serum survey of the spread of enterovirus 71 infection
Baseline 13.1% (19/145) with titers of 1:>32 Second sample from randomly selected patients at a local university hospital
Grills, 2010 (16) Australia August 2009–October 2009 10% in adults aged 18–65 years Cross-sectional seroprevalence Participants in a health monitoring program were tested opportunistically.
Baseline prepandemic seropositive rate from another study was subtracted from the result.
Chen, 2010 (17) Singapore June 22, 2009–October 15, 2009 13.5% in community-dwelling adults Serologic cohort study Multisample seroepidemiologic cohort study
6.5% in hospital staff Serial serum samples from individuals
29.4% in military personnel Seroconversion was determined by a 4-fold rise in titers.
1.2% in long-term-care patients
Crum-Cianflone, 2009 (18) San Diego, California, United States April 21, 2009–May 8, 2009 0.53% (101 per 100,000) from April 21, 2009, to May 8, 2009 Complete testing of ILI cases Complete RT-PCR testing of all ILI cases from a captive population of local US military beneficiaries
Colizza, 2009 (19) Mexico April 2009 0.11%–1.31% (121,000–1,394,000 cases as of April 30, 2009) Mathematical modeling Model with a geographically structured metapopulation approach
Use of a population-level census, human mobility flows, and disease dynamics to model disease evolution and infections
Presanis, 2009 (20) Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and New York, New York, United States April 2009–July 2009 Not shown; used as a denominator to determine hospitalization and case-fatality rates Mathematical modeling Estimation using mathematical model and probabilities of ILI with consultations, consultations that were tested, and proportion positive.
Data from physician consultations, laboratory, and telephone survey For New York, a telephone survey was conducted to determine self-reported ILI status.

Abbreviations: ARI, acute respiratory illness; CI, confidence interval; ILI, influenzalike illness; RT-PCR, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.