Table 2.
Global annual cost of climate change adaptation from the literature, in billion US$
| Sector | World Bank1 (2005 prices) |
UNFCCC2 (2007 prices) |
Ebi3 (2001 prices) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Period or time point | 2010-2050 | 2030 | 2030 |
| Health sector | 2.0 | 3.8 - 4.4 | 3.3 - 10.7 |
| Water supply | 13.7 | 9.0 - 11.0 | - |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 7.6 | 14.0 | - |
| Extreme weather | 6.7 | - | - |
| Total health-related | 30.0 | 26.8 - 29.4 | 3.8 - 4.4 |
| Total (all) | 89.64 | 56.8 - 193.45 | - |
| % health-related | 33.4% | 13.8 - 47.1% | - |
'-' not estimated
1 The World Bank study estimates the adaptation costs of two scenarios over four decadal periods from 2010 until 2050. The scenario presented in the table is from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) which is labelled the 'Wettest scenario'. For the other scenario from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), labelled the 'Driest scenario', the costs are as follows: human health (US$ 1.6 billion), water supply and flood protection (US$ 19.2 billion), agriculture forestry and fisheries (US$ 7.3 billion), extreme weather events (US$ 6.5 billion).
2 Two scenarios were modelled for the health sector analysis: stabilisation of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases at 750 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by 2210 and 550 ppmv by 2170. The table presents results for 550 ppmv. For the 750 ppmv scenario, the costs vary US$ 4.5 to US$ 5.4 billion. The variation is accounted for mainly by uncertainties in the number of additional malaria cases. In the water sector, the two figures represent SRES B1 (lower cost) and SRES A1 scenarios.
3 Scenarios similar to the UNFCCC study, as the latter used disease figures from Ebi (2008). For the health impacts, Ebi drew on the WHO Global Burden of Disease Study. The table presents results for 550 ppmv. For the 750 ppmv scenario, the costs vary US$ 4.0 to US$ 12.6 billion. Under an unmitigated emissions scenario, costs vary from US$ 5.9 to US$ 18.0 billion.
4 Other sectors are infrastructure and coastal zones. Under the driest scenario these account for US$ 43.1 billion, taking the total global costs to US$ 77.7 billion.
5 Other sectors are infrastructure, coastal zones and natural ecosystems. On infrastructure adaptation costs, there is a wide variation in cost between the estimates based on the Munich Re data (US$ 8 billion) and the Association of British Insurance data (US$ 130 billion).