Table 1. Incidence prediction model diagnostics.

		Singapore		Bangkok
		Full	Step-down	Full	Step-down
	Terms	20	16	21	8
Model	r 2	0.948	0.948	0.947	0.943
Fit	Correlation	0.931	0.931	0.879	0.869
	AIC	2760.57	2751.559	999.162	986.712
Incidence	Lag-0 Correlation	–	0.666	–	0.921
Prediction	Lag-4 Correlation	–	0.785	–	0.762

Table reports the r ², the correlation between observed dengue incidence and model fitted values, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for the full and step-down models in both Singapore and Bangkok. Table also reports correlation between observed 2010 dengue incidence and out-of-sample 2010 predictions from the step-down models for Singapore and Bangkok for unlagged observed incidence and observed incidence lagged by 4 weeks.