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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Jul 1.

Published in final edited form as: Alzheimers Dement. 2011 Jul;7(4):402–411. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2010.12.014

A, Estimated decimal annual incidence for the full cohort (primary analysis). The smoothing program could not accommodate the sparse data from the final year of observations.

B, Annual incidence of AD among 54 participants with CIND at baseline. Note the different scale for the ordinate vs. 3A. The groups assigned to NSAIDs show acceleration of dementia onset by approximately one year, as compared to those who received placebo. The extreme ordinate values for the later observations among celecoxib-assigned participants should probably be ignored.

C, Similar to 3A, but after exclusion of 8 enrollees with AD and 54 with CIND at baseline. An early excess of dementia in both NSAID-assigned groups is still evident, but no participants given placebo developed dementia for 22 months following randomization. New cases of AD increased rapidly thereafter in those assigned to placebo or celecoxib, but incidence among naproxen-assigned participants remained steady at about 0.01/yr.

A, Estimated decimal annual incidence for the full cohort (primary analysis). The smoothing program could not accommodate the sparse data from the final year of observations.

B, Annual incidence of AD among 54 participants with CIND at baseline. Note the different scale for the ordinate vs. 3A. The groups assigned to NSAIDs show acceleration of dementia onset by approximately one year, as compared to those who received placebo. The extreme ordinate values for the later observations among celecoxib-assigned participants should probably be ignored.

C, Similar to 3A, but after exclusion of 8 enrollees with AD and 54 with CIND at baseline. An early excess of dementia in both NSAID-assigned groups is still evident, but no participants given placebo developed dementia for 22 months following randomization. New cases of AD increased rapidly thereafter in those assigned to placebo or celecoxib, but incidence among naproxen-assigned participants remained steady at about 0.01/yr.