Table 2.
Procedure-Specific Characteristics, Major Coexisting Conditions, and Predicted Mortality Rates among Medicare Patients, from 1999 through 2008.*
| Variable | Period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999–2000 | 2001–2002 | 2003–2004 | 2005–2006 | 2007–2008 | |
|
Esophagectomy
| |||||
| Age — yr | 72.3±8.1 | 72.1±8.2 | 72.0±8.4 | 71.8±8.4 | 71.7±8.3 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 28.1 | 29.8 | 31.5 | 34.2 | 30.0 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 9.7 (9.5–9.9) | 9.5 (9.3–9.7) | 9.3 (9.1–9.5) | 9.6 (9.4–9.9) | 9.3 (9.1–9.5) |
|
| |||||
|
Pancreatectomy
| |||||
| Age — yr | 71.5±9.4 | 71.6±9.3 | 71.8±9.3 | 71.8±9.3 | 71.8±9.2 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 25.0 | 27.2 | 30.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 6.8 (6.7–7.1) | 6.7 (6.6–7.0) | 6.6 (6.4–6.7) | 6.4 (6.3–6.6) | 6.3 (6.1–6.4) |
|
| |||||
|
Lung resection
| |||||
| Age — yr | 72.2±7.1 | 72.2±7.2 | 72.3±7.4 | 72.3±7.6 | 72.3±7.7 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 26.6 | 30.0 | 32.7 | 36.4 | 36.5 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 4.8 (4.8–4.9) | 4.7 (4.7–4.8) | 4.7 (4.6–4.7) | 4.7 (4.7–4.8) | 4.7 (4.6–4.7) |
|
| |||||
|
Cystectomy
| |||||
| Age — yr | 73.4±7.9 | 73.3±8.1 | 73.4±8.0 | 73.5±8.1 | 73.6±8.0 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 20.8 | 23.2 | 27.1 | 30.9 | 35.3 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 3.7 (3.7–3.8) | 3.6 (3.6–3.7) | 3.6 (3.6–3.7) | 3.9 (3.9–4.0) | 4.2 (4.1–4.3) |
|
| |||||
|
AAA repair
| |||||
| Age — yr | 74.4±6.3 | 74.8±6.5 | 75.0±6.7 | 75.2±6.9 | 75.4±7.1 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 33.5 | 34.4 | 36.9 | 40.3 | 37.0 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 3.5 (3.5–3.6) | 3.4 (3.4–3.4) | 3.3 (3.3–3.4) | 3.6 (3.6–3.7) | 3.6 (3.6–3.7) |
|
| |||||
|
CABG
| |||||
| Age — yr | 72.4±7.4 | 72.3±7.6 | 72.2±7.8 | 72.1±7.9 | 71.9±8.0 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 30.6 | 34.6 | 38.9 | 44.7 | 37.5 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 3.8 (3.8–3.8) | 3.8 (3.8–3.8) | 3.9 (3.9–3.9) | 4.4 (4.4–4.4) | 4.3 (4.2–4.3) |
|
| |||||
|
Carotid endarterectomy
| |||||
| Age — yr | 74.6±7.0 | 74.7±7.0 | 74.7±7.3 | 74.7±7.4 | 74.7±7.6 |
|
| |||||
| ≥3 Coexisting conditions — % | 22.5 | 25.0 | 28.8 | 33.8 | 33.4 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 1.2 (1.2–1.2) | 1.2 (1.2–1.2) | 1.2 (1.2–1.3) | 1.3 (1.3–1.3) | 1.3 (1.3–1.3) |
|
| |||||
|
Aortic-valve replacement
| |||||
| Age — yr | 74.7±8.0 | 74.8±8.1 | 74.8±8.3 | 74.9±8.3 | 75.1±8.1 |
|
| |||||
| ≥=3 Coexisting conditions — % | 39.4 | 43.0 | 46.6 | 51.7 | 35.2 |
|
| |||||
| Predicted mortality — % (95% CI) | 6.8 (6.8–6.8) | 6.9 (6.8–6.9) | 6.9 (6.9–7.0) | 7.6 (7.6–7.7) | 7.0 (7.0–7.1) |
*
Plus–minus values are means ±SD. AAA denotes abdominal aortic aneurysm, CABG coronary-artery bypass grafting, and CI confidence interval. Procedure-specific predicted mortality rates were determined for each patient with the use of an analysis of Medicare data from 1999 through 2000 and a logistic-regression model, clustering at the hospital level and controlling for patient characteristics, including age, sex, race, admission acuity, coexisting conditions, and socioeconomic status.