Table 4.

Total number of cases, peak number of cases and peak day with or without HS control for four values of R₀

R0 value	With HS?	Probability of outbreak (%)	Total cases	Compared with N (%)	95% CI	Peak cases	Compared with N (%)	95% CI	Peak day	Compared with N (%)	95% CI
1.236	No	80	3958		3575-4298	149		122-174	40		23-67
	Yes	41	2449	61.9%	895-2989	44	29.5%	17-51	94	235.0%	48-197
1.79	No	> 99	5703		5539-5872	308		274-345	31		22-44
	Yes	97	4494	78.8%	4219-4781	134	43.5%	107-160	48	154.8%	36-71
2.419	No	100	6955		6860-7066	503		460-561	25		22-30
	Yes	100	6299	90.6%	6142-6434	335	66.6%	293-380	34	128.0%	29-43
2.596	No	100	7522		7435-7585	658		607-720	22		19-26
	Yes	99	7154	95.1%	7063-7259	495	75.2%	461-539	28	127.3%	23-32