Table 4.
Conditional Growth Mixture Models Including a Covariate and a Distal Outcome (Mortality)
| Model 4a: included early heroin use and mortality |
Model 4b: included early alcohol use and mortality |
Model 4c: included ethnicity and mortality |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increased | Decreased Late |
Decreased Early |
Moderate | Increased | Decreased Late |
Decreased Early |
Moderate | Increased | Decreased Late |
Decreased Early |
Moderate | |
| Means | ||||||||||||
| Intercept (I) | 1.00** | 1.93** | 2.26** | 2.50** | 1.82** | 2.50** | 2.53** | 1.53** | 1.93** | 1.84** | 1.62** | 1.58** |
| Slope (S) | 0.30** | 0.30** | −0.02 | −0.27** | 0.42** | −0.33 | −0.40** | 0.28* | −0.16 | 0.13 | 0.63** | −0.02 |
| Quadratic (Q) | −0.01** | −0.03** | −0.05** | 0.02** | −0.04** | −0.03 | 0.03** | −0.02** | −0.07 | −0.02* | −0.09** | 0.004 |
| I on early use | 0.25 | −0.11 | 0.93 | −0.56* | −0.27 | −0.72 | −0.23 | 1.03 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| S on early use | 0.35* | −0.09 | −0.96** | 0.21 | −0.32 | 0.65* | 0.79 | −0.71* | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Q on early use | −0.05** | 0.01 | 0.12** | −0.01 | 0.04** | −0.01 | −0.11 | 0.04* | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| I on Hispanic | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | −0.52 | 0.21 | 1.26** | 1.32** |
| S on Hispanic | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.35 | 0.14 | −1.06** | −0.20 |
| Q on Hispanic | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.06 | −0.01 | 0.11** | −0.03* |
| I on Black | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | −1.02 | −1.26 | −0.42 | 0.85** |
| S on Black | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1.15** | 0.31* | 0.001 | −0.26* |
| Q on Black | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | −0.10 | −0.002 | 0.03* | 0.01 |
| Variance1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Intercept | 0.46** | 0.46** | 0.46** | 0.46** | 0.42** | 0.42** | 0.42** | 0.42** | 0.40** | 0.40** | 0.40** | 0.40** |
| Residual Variance | 2.20** | 2.20** | 2.20** | 2.20** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** | 2.22** |
| Logit of probability of class membership | ||||||||||||
| Mean logit | −0.01 | −0.32** | −1.04** | -- | −0.84** | −0.93** | −0.60** | -- | −1.43** | −0.14 | −1.23** | -- |
| Membership on early Use |
−0.87** | 0.39 | −1.26** | -- | 2.05 | 1.54 | −0.32 | -- | ||||
| Membership on Hispanic |
3.46** | −1.59** | 2.41** | -- | ||||||||
| Membership on Black | 0.32** | −0.06 | 1.14** | -- | ||||||||
| Dead (vs Alive) | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.96** | 0.63** | −0.31 | −0.17 | −1.10** | −0.38 | −0.70** | 0.06 | −0.51 | −0.41 |
| Mortality % | 48.5 | 44.9 | 28.6 | 35.0 | 42.6 | 45.2 | 22.9 | 40.6 | 32.2 | 51.1 | 40.7 | 39.2 |
| Number of subjects (%) in each class |
132 (28) | 127 (27) | 49 (10) | 163 (35) | 202 (43) | 115 (24) | 48 (10) | 106 (23) | 149 (32) | 139 (30) | 86 (18) | 97 (21) |
| Goodness of fit | ||||||||||||
| Bayesian (BIC) | 25315.15 | 25316.7 | 25349.95 | |||||||||
| LMR LRT | P=0.0037 | P=0.818 | P=0.013 | |||||||||
1
Variances of Slope and Quadratic were constrained to zero.
*
p <0.05
**
p <0.01