Table 4.
Ratios of global emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles in the four alternative scenarios to those in the BaU scenario 1
| CO2 emissions ratio (%) | SO2 emissions ratio (%) | NOx emissions ratio (%) | PM emissions ratio (%) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
| BaU scenario with a 10-year lag | ||||||||||||||||
| Light-duty vehicles | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 74.6 | 68.0 | 87.6 | 100.0 | 88.2 | 85.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Two-wheelers | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 24.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 84.0 | 76.6 | 69.9 | 100.0 | 69.0 | 57.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Buses | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 22.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 81.6 | 73.8 | 64.2 | 51.2 | 69.2 | 61.6 | 46.4 | 68.5 |
| Medium-duty trucks | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 24.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 80.8 | 72.1 | 62.8 | 49.8 | 72.5 | 65.9 | 43.7 | 63.3 |
| Heavy-duty trucks | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 25.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 82.3 | 74.1 | 64.8 | 53.8 | 67.1 | 54.8 | 47.2 | 63.3 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 32.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 80.7 | 72.8 | 68.3 | 63.2 | 72.1 | 65.5 | 79.2 | 89.2 |
| BaU scenario with a 30-year lag | ||||||||||||||||
| Light-duty vehicles | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 178.5 | 176.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 123.6 | 136.3 | 144.6 | 115.3 | 109.9 | 113.2 | 116.7 | 100.0 |
| Two-wheelers | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 205.3 | 286.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 112.4 | 119.6 | 127.2 | 130.5 | 125.2 | 140.2 | 156.7 | 100.0 |
| Buses | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 229.9 | 300.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 115.6 | 124.7 | 137.6 | 148.4 | 131.4 | 147.7 | 157.3 | 204.0 |
| Medium-duty trucks | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 221.2 | 281.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 116.3 | 126.3 | 139.0 | 149.6 | 127.6 | 140.5 | 149.3 | 203.9 |
| Heavy-duty trucks | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 231.7 | 265.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 115.0 | 124.5 | 136.9 | 146.1 | 132.9 | 154.6 | 176.3 | 192.8 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 209.3 | 226.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 116.6 | 126.4 | 138.4 | 140.1 | 126.1 | 137.5 | 143.8 | 128.9 |
| CO2 mitigation scenario | ||||||||||||||||
| Light-duty vehicles | 98.9 | 92.6 | 88.8 | 79.9 | 98.3 | 92.6 | 88.8 | 80.0 | 98.1 | 92.9 | 87.7 | 78.3 | 98.6 | 92.4 | 87.4 | 78.1 |
| Two-wheelers | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 94.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 101.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 93.6 |
| Buses | 99.3 | 99.3 | 98.0 | 92.6 | 100.1 | 99.3 | 98.0 | 92.0 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 97.4 | 101.5 | 101.8 | 98.5 | 95.4 | 94.0 |
| Medium-duty trucks | 99.1 | 98.0 | 94.2 | 77.9 | 99.5 | 98.0 | 94.2 | 78.0 | 98.7 | 97.0 | 93.5 | 75.5 | 98.7 | 97.6 | 92.5 | 68.3 |
| Heavy-duty trucks | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.6 | 84.6 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.6 | 84.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 96.5 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 93.9 |
| Total | 99.3 | 96.0 | 93.4 | 81.7 | 99.3 | 95.9 | 93.3 | 81.6 | 99.5 | 98.2 | 96.2 | 87.8 | 99.7 | 97.6 | 93.7 | 80.4 |
| CO2 mitigation scenario with optimistic cost assumptions | ||||||||||||||||
| Light-duty vehicles | 79.9 | 58.0 | 55.3 | 46.2 | 80.6 | 58.1 | 55.4 | 46.4 | 78.2 | 53.1 | 54.0 | 53.9 | 75.7 | 52.3 | 54.4 | 53.6 |
| Two-wheelers | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.7 | 100.0 |
| Buses | 94.3 | 93.3 | 94.0 | 92.2 | 93.8 | 93.5 | 86.8 | 70.1 | 88.1 | 81.9 | 83.5 | 74.6 | 87.2 | 83.3 | 81.7 | 67.5 |
| Medium-duty trucks | 92.3 | 73.9 | 49.1 | 28.2 | 92.4 | 73.9 | 49.2 | 28.3 | 83.5 | 56.3 | 42.1 | 36.0 | 83.5 | 54.8 | 38.3 | 33.7 |
| Heavy-duty trucks | 100.1 | 100.1 | 99.9 | 97.9 | 100.1 | 100.1 | 99.9 | 97.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.7 | 100.1 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.5 |
| Total | 88.5 | 74.8 | 69.2 | 59.4 | 91.1 | 74.4 | 68.4 | 57.5 | 91.7 | 81.4 | 77.5 | 73.2 | 92.6 | 80.7 | 72.8 | 60.2 |
1
This table shows tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions. The carbon emission factor for biofuels has been set at zero assuming that biomass is produced in a sustainable way so that they can be regarded as CO2 neutral.