Table 4.

Coefficients for OLS Regression Models of the Logged Total Mortality Ratio, by Age, High Income Nations 1975–2000 (N = 105, 21 nations, 5 years)

Coefficients	0–34		35–69		70+		All Ages
	Fixed Effectsa		Fixed Effectsa		Fixed Effectsa		Fixed Effectsa
	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
Predicted Logged Non-Smoking Mortality Ratio
b	1.000**	1.000**	.383	.368**	4.128**	.525**	.802**	.697**
se	.213	.099	.244	.064	.721	.099	.203	.074
beta	.420	.707	.132	.311	.530	.520	.374	.580
Predicted Logged Smoking Mortality Ratio
b	--	--	.084**	.097**	.011	.024**	.087**	.100**
se	--	--	.011	.007	.006	.005	.019	.012
beta	--	--	.702	1.020	.190	.625	.474	.711
Lagged Cigarette Consumption
b	--	--	−.004	.018*	.016**	.009	.040	.059**
se	--	--	.011	.007	.006	.006	.021	.011
beta	--	--	−.031	.162	.272	.162	.465	.692
Predicted Logged Smoking Mortality Ratio × Lagged Cigarette Consumption
b	--	--	.030**	.036**	.023**	.016**	.043**	.050**
se	--	--	.009	.005	.005	.003	.016	.009
beta	--	--	.261	.436	.410	.536	.580	.593
Const	.000	.000	.495	.480	−.213	.217	.314	.356
R2	.176	.500	.444	.720	.324	.285	.291	.630
Predicted Proportional Change from 2000 to 2020
Δb	.176	.176	.047	−.006	−.329	−.083	.137	.081
Δc	.088	.088	.015	−.036	−.169	−.065	.071	.024
Δd	.000	.000	−.017	−.066	−.009	−.046	.006	−.032
Δe	−.088	−.088	−.048	−.096	.152	−.028	−.060	−.089

^*p < .05

^**p < .01

^aBased on predicted values from OLS regression of logged smoking and non-smoking ratios from models without and with fixed effects in Table 4

^bBased on assumed linear rate of increase (or decrease at ages 70+) in the logged ratio of nonsmoking mortality;

^cbased on assumed falling rate of increase (or decrease at ages 70+);

^dbased on assumed no change;

^ebased on assumed falling rate of decrease (or increase at ages 70+)