Table 2.
HRs for baseline and updated mean values of different lipid measures and fatal/nonfatal CHD at Cox proportional hazards regression, with calibration, discrimination, and model fit, in 18,673 type 2 diabetic patients followed for 5 years with 1,156 CHD events
| Lipid measures | Baseline values |
Updated mean values |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence |
Calibration: ratio of O to P rates | Discrimination: C statistic | Goodness of fit: LR χ2/AIC | Incidence |
|||
| HR (95% CI)* | Wald χ2 | HR (95% CI)* | Wald χ2 | ||||
| Ratios | |||||||
| TC:HDL | 1.23 (1.17–1.30) | 55† | 7.09:7.09 | 0.70 | 564/21,927 | 1.38 (1.32–1.46) | 158† |
| Non-HDL:HDL | 1.23 (1.17–1.30) | 55† | 7.09:7.09 | 0.70 | 564/21,927 | 1.38 (1.32–1.46) | 158† |
| LDL:HDL | 1.22 (1.15–1.28) | 50† | 7.09:7.08 | 0.70 | 559/21,931 | 1.37 (1.30–1.44) | 154† |
| Single measures | |||||||
| Non-HDL | 1.20 (1.14–1.27) | 40† | 7.09:7.09 | 0.70 | 551/21,939 | 1.38 (1.32–1.46) | 144† |
| LDL cholesterol | 1.17 (1.10–1.24) | 28† | 7.09:7.09 | 0.70 | 540/21,951 | 1.33 (1.26–1.41) | 107† |
| TG:HDL | 1.15 (1.08–1.21) | 23† | 7.09:7.11 | 0.70 | 534/21,956 | 1.20 (1.14–1.26) | 49† |
| HDL cholesterol | 0.85 (0.79–0.91) | 20† | 7.09:7.11 | 0.70 | 534/21,956 | 0.79 (0.73–0.85) | 41† |
| Total cholesterol | 1.14 (1.08–1.21) | 20† | 7.09:7.10 | 0.70 | 533/21,958 | 1.29 (1.22–1.37) | 82† |
| Triacylglycerol | 1.13 (1.06–1.19) | 16† | 7.09:7.11 | 0.70 | 528/21,963 | 1.17 (1.10–1.23) | 31† |
| Combinations | |||||||
| LDL cholesterol | 1.17 (1.10–1.24) | 29† | 7.09:7.10 | 0.70 | 563/21,930 | 1.33 (1.26–1.41) | 113† |
| TG:HDL | 1.15 (1.09–1.22) | 24† | 1.21 (1.15–1.27) | 56† | |||
Wald χ2 statistic: a higher value indicates stronger association. C statistic: a higher value indicates a better discrimination. Likelihood ratio (LR) χ2 statistics from the Cox model: a higher value indicates a better global fit. AIC from the Cox model: a lower value indicates a better trade-off between the likelihood of a model against its complexity. Ratio of O to P rates, ratio of observed 5-year Kaplan-Meier CHD rate (%) to predicted mean rate (%) in a Cox proportional hazards model.
*HR (95% CI) for a 1-SD increase in a lipid measure at Cox regression, with adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, type of hypoglycemic treatment, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, smoking, BMI, albuminuria >20 µg/min, and a history of CVD.
†P < 0.001.