Figure 3. Reproduction numbers.

(A) Estimated empirical R ₀-values derived from the early exponential growth rate of the epidemic versus proportion of children in the eight studied countries/states. R ₀-values estimated from data on H1N1 confirmed cases were used in the regression analysis except for Victoria for which only ILI data was available. (B) Distribution of estimated reproduction numbers by country obtained in country-specific and global fits. For each country, the posterior median estimates of R ₀ for country-specific and global fits are plotted with 95% credible intervals. The grey circles correspond to country-specific estimates, whereas blue squares, green stars and red triangles represent estimates for M1, M2 and M3 model variants of the global fits, respectively. For those countries where two datasets were available, the two estimates are plotted. For the global fits, because R ₀ differences among countries derived from population demography only, fitting resulted in one estimate only even when both ILI and confirmed case data were available.