Table 2.

Epidemiological inputs used in the model for elderly and at risk adults

Item	Pneumococcal infection	Base case	Range	Sources/comments
Incidence (per 100,000)	NBPP	1136	728–2092	Jackson, et al. 2004:46 Value in 65+ on all CAP in US. Using the rate 30–50% of CAP are pneumococcal pneumonia, NBPP incidence was calculated.
	BPP	51.5	18–85	WHO Weekly Epidemiologic Record 2008:84 Range of 24–85 in 65+ in industrialized countries. Minimum value of 18 from Kaplan 200247
Hospitalization rates	NBPP	19.4%	15.5–23.3%	For NBPP , value from Turkish MoH records and National Burden of Disease survey31,32 ±20% for the range
	BPP	95.5%	76.4–100%	Vila Corcoles, et al. 2006,7 which reports 1/22 IPD cases not being hospitalised, i.e., around 4.5%. The IPD hospitalization rate reported was therefore 95.5%. ± 20% for the range
Case fatality rate	NBPP	0.036	0.004–0.068	Jackson, et al. 2004:46 (rate on 65+ in US for all CAP, CAP in outpatient for the minimum of the range, calculated value for the maximum of the range to have a mean at 0.036)
	BPP	0.225	0.143–0.308	Middleton, et al. 2008:34 rate between 14.3% for 65–74 yo and 30.8% for 85+ yo (confirmed by WHO WER Oct 2008 saying that BPP CFR may reach 30–40% in elderly and in industrialized countries)4