Table 1.

Relative effect of vaccination in reducing the peak attack rate and the epidemic size with respect to the no intervention scenario

Vaccination	Baseline peak time	Relative reduction of peak attack rate (%)				Relative reduction of epidemic size (%)
Country		15 Oc 30% cov	15 Oct 60% cov	15 Nov 30% cov	15 Nov 60% cov	15 Oct 30% cov	15 Oct 60% cov	15 Nov 30% cov	15 Nov 60% cov
US	(23 Sep–09 Nov)	(1–15)	(1–15)	(0–2)	(0–2)	(5–25)	(5–25)	(1–2)	(1–2)
UK	(10 Oct–19 Nov)	(1–29)	(1–29)	0	(0–1)	(11–30)	(11–31)	(1–4)	(1–4)
Canada	(04 Oct–14 Nov)	(1–21)	(1–21)	(0–1)	(0–1)	(10–30)	(10–32)	(1–5)	(1–5)
France	(11 Oct–21 Nov)	(2–32)	(2–32)	(0–2)	(0–2)	(12–32)	(12–33)	(1–5)	(1–5)
Italy	(17 Oct–23 Nov)	(5–38)	(5–38)	(0–1)	(0–1)	(13–35)	(13–36)	(1–5)	(1–5)
Spain	(09 Oct–19 Nov)	(1–30)	(1–30)	(0–1)	(0–1)	(11–32)	(11–33)	(1–4)	(1–4)
Germany	(11 Oct–20 Nov)	(2–34)	(2–34)	(0–1)	(0–1)	(12–33)	(12–34)	(1–4)	(1–4)

Results show the relative reduction obtained with each vaccination strategy with respect to the baseline case. They are calculated as the relative reduction of the maximum of the 95% reference range obtained from 2000 stochastic realizations of the model (vaccination strategy vs baseline), and correspond to the extreme of the reference range for the activity peak time. The 95% reference range of the activity peak in the no intervention scenario is also shown.