Table 2. Determining Dynamic Health Policies Using Real-Time Data.

At time t = 0

1. Obtain estimates for model parameters (), initial number of susceptibles, , and a prior distribution for random variable .

2. Use Eqs. (7)–(8) to determine the dynamic health policy .

3. Find the optimal number of susceptibles to immunize, , using Eq. (10).

4. Increment time to .

5. Update the number of susceptibles at time : .

While

1. Given the availability of vaccine, use Eq. (8) or Eq. (12) to find the optimal number of susceptibles to immunize, , and the optimal transmission-reducing intervention, .

2. At the end of period , use the real-time data to update the model parameters (using for instance, maximum likelihood estimation) and the dynamic health policy , using Eqs. (7)–(8).

3. Increment time: .

4. Use Table 1 to update the epidemic state at time .