Table 2.

Probability values (6-month data taken from clinical trials; ranges for sensitivity analysis)

	No treatment			Salmeterol			Tiotropium
	Sensitivity analysis			Sensitivity analysis			Sensitivity analysis
	Base-case value	Low value	High value	Base-case value	Low value	High value	Base-case value	Low value	High value
Probability of exacerbation	0.2897	0.1895	0.39	0.35	0.343	0.357	0.2424	0.1648	0.32
Probability of hospitalization	0.04795	0.0459	0.05	0.05	0.049	0.051	0.0274	0.0247	0.03
Probability of severe exacerbation	0.145	0.1	0.2	0.15215	0.138	0.167	0.285	0.112	0.4579