Table 2.
Input parameters used in the scenario tree model to substantiate freedom from IBR and EBL in Switzerland
| Description of input parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Herd-level design prevalence for disease freedom from IBR and EBL (P*H) | 0.002 | OIE Animal Health Code 2010 |
| Proportions of risk factors for IBR in the cattle farm population (PrRF) | ||
| Proportion of "animal contacts" (PrAC) | 0.401 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "animal movements" (PrAM) | 0.286 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "farm close to border" (PrFcB) | 0.100 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "high density of herds" (PrhDH) | 0.123 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "importation of cattle" (PrIC) | 0.002 | TVD1 |
| Proportions of risk factors for EBL in the cattle farm population (PrRF) | ||
| Proportion of "animal movements" (PrAM) | 0.286 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "importation of cattle" (PrIC) | 0.002 | TVD1 |
| Proportion of "common summer pasture" (PrSP) | 0.398 | TVD1 |
| Relative risks (RRRF) of risk factors for IBR | ||
| RR of "animal contacts" (RRAC) | RiskPert(2; 4; 6) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "animal movements" (RRAM) | RiskPert(2; 4; 6) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "farm close to border" (RRFcB) | RiskPert(2; 4; 6) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "high density of herds" (RRhDH) | RiskPert(1; 2; 3) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "importation of cattle" (RRIC) | RiskPert(2; 4; 6) | Expert opinion2 |
| Relative risks (RRRF) of risk factors for EBL | ||
| RR of "animal movements" (RRAM) | RiskPert(1; 2; 3) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "importation of cattle" (RRIC) | RiskPert(1.5; 4; 5) | Expert opinion2 |
| RR of "common summer pasture" (RRSP) | RiskPert(1; 1.5; 3) | Expert opinion2 |
| ELISA test-sensitivities for herd serology (TSensSH) | ||
| TSensSH of IBR-Antibody-ELISA (CHEKIT® Trachitest Serum, IDEXX Laboratories) | 0.993 | Swiss Reference Laboratory for IBR3 |
| TSensSH of EBL-Antibody-ELISA (CHEKIT® Leucose Serum, IDEXX Laboratories) | 0.999 | Swiss Reference Laboratory for EBL4 |
1Swiss Animal Movement Database (2008)
2Modified Delphi approach
3Institute of Virology, University of Zurich
4Institute of Veterinary Virology, University of Berne