Figure 2. Results for borer feeding guild and local government cost category showing the posterior probability distributions of a) estimated total annual cost of all known borer species, b) probability that a newly introduced borer will cost local governments as much or more than the poster pest (emerald ash borer).

Panels c) and d) show the low sensitivity of the posterior predictions to alternative specifications of the low impact threshold (LT) which was based on expert opinion (Appendix S1). Shown are alternative specifications for total annual guild costs (c) and probability of a high impact borer (d) across two orders of magnitude, where low, medium and high costs are defined as 150, 1,500 and 15,000 annual USD, respectively (Table S6).