Table 1.
The projected probability (%) for the whole cohort using HIP study data
| Screening interval | P(NsN) | P(No-ED) | P(True-ED) | P(Over-D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age at initial screen = 40 | ||||
| 12 mo. | 89.71 | 2.48 | 7.34 | 0.32 |
| 24 mo. | 89.78 | 4.77 | 5.04 | 0.25 |
| Age at initial screen = 50 | ||||
| 12 mo. | 91.21 | 1.95 | 6.49 | 0.33 |
| 24 mo. | 91.28 | 3.91 | 4.52 | 0.26 |
| Age at initial screen = 60 | ||||
| 12 mo. | 93.21 | 1.39 | 5.03 | 0.33 |
| 24 mo. | 93.28 | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.26 |
Source: Wu, D and Rosner, G.L. A projection of true-early-detection, no-early-detection, over-diagnosis and not-so-necessary probabilities in tumor screening. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association,2010. Biopharmaceutical Section, Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association. 1144–1157.