Table 1.
Thousands of cases (1a) and hundreds of deaths (1b) from cholera projected between March 1 and November 30, 2011 by Department under base case and under each intervention scenario.
| 1a. | Thousands of Cases | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artibonite | Centre | Grande Anse | Nippes | Nord | Nord Oueste | Nord Est | Ouest | Port au Prince | Sud | Sud Est | Total | ||
| Base Case | Mean 95% CI | 137 (105–161) | 49 (36–59) | 55 (47–59) | 17 (12–21) | 121 (105–128) | 65 (51–74) | 38 (30–43) | 77 (56–94) | 154 (110–191) | 43 (31–53) | 23 (16–30) | 779 (599–914) |
| Expanded Antibiotic Use (50% moderate cases) | Mean 95% CI | 136 (104–160) | 48 (35–59) | 54 (46–58) | 16 (11–21) | 120 (104–127) | 65 (51–74) | 38 (30–43) | 76 (54–93) | 152 (108–189) | 42 (30–53) | 23 (15–30) | 770 (589–905) |
| Vaccination (10% of population) | Mean 95% CI | 126 (97–148) | 45 (33–55) | 50 (43–53) | 15 (11–19) | 109 (96–114) | 60 (47–68) | 35 (28–39) | 71 (51–86) | 142 (102–176) | 40 (28–49) | 22 (14–28) | 716 (551–836) |
| Expanded Antibiotics and Vaccination | Mean 95% CI | 125 (96–146) | 44 (33–54) | 50 (43–53) | 15 (10–19) | 109 (95–114) | 59 (47–67) | 35 (28–39) | 70 (50–85) | 140 (99–174) | 39 (28–49) | 21 (14–27) | 707 (542–827) |
| Improvement in water (1% per week) | Mean 95% CI | 119 (90–140) | 42 (30–51) | 49 (41–53) | 14 (10–18) | 108 (92–114) | 57 (44–65) | 33 (26–38) | 65 (47–81) | 131 (92–164) | 37 (26–46) | 20 (13–26) | 674 (511–797) |
| All three interventions | Mean 95% CI | 108 (81–127) | 38 (27–47) | 44 (37–48) | 13 (9–16) | 97 (83–102) | 52 (40–59) | 30 (24–35) | 59 (42–73) | 118 (83–148) | 33 (23–42) | 17 (11–23) | 609 (461–720) |
| 1b. | Thousands of Cases | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artibonite | Centre | Grande Anse | Nippes | Nord | Nord Oueste | Nord Est | Ouest | Port au Prince | Sud | Sud Est | Total | ||
| Base Case | Mean 95% CI | 14 (9–21) | 9 (6–15) | 17 (12–24) | 7 (4–11) | 10 (8–16) | 6 (4–10) | 7 (4–11) | 8 (5–12) | 13 (8–23) | 7 (5–12) | 13 (7–20) | 111 (73–174) |
| Expanded Antibiotic Use (50% moderate cases) | Mean 95% CI | 13 (8–18) | 8 (5–13) | 15 (10–21) | 6 (4–10) | 9 (7–15) | 5 (4–8) | 6 (4–9) | 7 (4–11) | 12 (7–21) | 6 (4–10) | 11 (6–18) | 98 (64–154) |
| Vaccination (10% of population) | Mean 95% CI | 13 (9–19) | 9 (5–14) | 15 (11–22) | 6 (4–10) | 9 (7–15) | 6 (4–9) | 6 (4–10) | 7 (5–11) | 12 (8–21) | 7 (4–11) | 12 (7–18) | 102 (67–159) |
| Expanded Antibiotics and Vaccination | Mean 95% CI | 12 (8–17) | 8 (5–12) | 14 (9–19) | 5 (3–9) | 8 (6–13) | 5 (4–8) | 6 (4–9) | 6 (4–10) | 11 (7–19) | 6 (4–9) | 10 (6–16) | 90 (59–141) |
| Improvement in water (1% per week) | Mean 95% CI | 12 (8–18) | 8 (5–13) | 15 (10–21) | 6 (3–9) | 9 (7–15) | 5 (4–8) | 6 (4–9) | 7 (4–10) | 11 (7–20) | 6 (4–10) | 10 (6–17) | 96 (62–151) |
| All three interventions | Mean 95% CI | 10 (7–15) | 7 (4–10) | 12 (8–17) | 4 (3–7) | 7 (6–12) | 4 (3–7) | 5 (3–8) | 5 (3–8) | 9 (6–16) | 5 (3–8) | 8 (5–14) | 77 (50–122) |